Battle Hardened - Pro Tour: Baltimore - Kano (Blitz)

Kano

26 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rob Catton

5th • 7-3-0

60%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Prism) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Mae French (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Brett Merold (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Carson Osborne (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Bellotti (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

65:35

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Peter Hong (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Noah Clark (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R10 Blitz

Round 10: Loss vs Noah Clark (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

60% (6/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.18
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.22
R4	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.69
R5	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R9	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R10	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Nova Chan

9th • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Machusak (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Michael Causey (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Levy (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jack Raven (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Caden Stabler (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs nicklas starland (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Long Dao (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.38
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.24
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R5	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.57
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Spencer Freeman

12th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.8

Diff

75:25

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Zach Reinschreiber (Uzuri) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Evan Ayer (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Dorinthea) - Expected: 71:29

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Alex Sneed (Prism) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Rose smyth (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Uzuri	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.04
R2	Blitz	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R4	Blitz	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.40
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.40
R6	Blitz	Dorinthea	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.32
R7	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Prism	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.63
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Christopher Iaali

16th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Chiechi (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Dain Smith (Dorinthea) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Ian Shaffer (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Nils Klaper (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Victor Mercado (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Vladimir Del Valle (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

30:70

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Prism) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Dorinthea	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.11
R3	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.40
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.43
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.57
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R9	Blitz	Prism	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.83

Joshua Rath

27th • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs daren smith (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Flores (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Tatiana Parada (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Jeremy Seibert (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Peter Ward (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

75:25

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Scott Egan (Uzuri) - Expected: 77:23

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs David Brannen (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Ryan Schutter (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.40
R6	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	Blitz	Uzuri	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.29
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

Alexander Vore

30th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Canales (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jake Ausdemore (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Steven Caraher (Prism) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Vladimir Del Valle (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Noah Clark (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.10
R2	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R5	Blitz	Prism	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.02
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R7	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Anthony Pham

36th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea) - Expected: 71:29

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jason Cole (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Vladimir Del Valle (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Ethan Van Sant (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Remington Aalbers (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Peter Hong (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Dorinthea	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.11
R3	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Peter Buddensiek

50th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Wesley Dong (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Justin Carbungco (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Dallas Weart (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Rose smyth (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs nicklas starland (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Caden Stabler (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Jacob Kurka (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.16
R3	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.57
R8	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R9	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Andrew Lorenz

64th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

65:35

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Justin Skewers (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Donovan Wilcox (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Owen Young (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

65:35

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Goodkin (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Josef Mendez (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Williamson (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Reeve Chia (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.07
R2	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.31
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.40
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R7	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

Remington Aalbers

65th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.8

Surp

4.6

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Davis (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Lupe Khang (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Chad Emerick (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Travis Woodward (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Dustin Schutz (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Thomas Mottram (Prism) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.24
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.37
R6	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.15
R7	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Prism	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.83

Nathan Gardner

66th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

65:35

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Wagoner (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Pierre-Olivier Vallerand Beaudry (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Michael Pawlak (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37

90:10

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Koslosky (Bravo) - Expected: 92:8

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Elijah Flanders (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Alan Chavarin (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs nicklas starland (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.07
R2	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.37
R6	Blitz	Bravo	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.08
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

Daniel Bellotti

73rd • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

5.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Leroy Pope III (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Goodkin (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Austin Redington (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Owen Young (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Rob Catton (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Prism) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Ryan Schutter (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

70:30

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.15
R3	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.77
R5	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Prism	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.22
R7	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R9	Blitz	Dorinthea	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Aidan O'Sullivan

86th • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs June Aino (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

75:25

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Zach Reinschreiber (Uzuri) - Expected: 77:23

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Brengartner (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Jackie Rousseau (Dash) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Damian Host (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Kyra Marks (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

75:25

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Scott Egan (Uzuri) - Expected: 77:23

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Blitz	Uzuri	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.08
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.24
R4	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.36
R6	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.93
R7	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R8	Blitz	Uzuri	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.34
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Matthew Duggan

dropped • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Skyler Lewis (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Dash) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

75:25

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Chris Rowland (Uzuri) - Expected: 77:23

90:10

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Zack Phillips (Bravo) - Expected: 92:8

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Krebs (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Corey Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.23
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R4	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	Blitz	Uzuri	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.21
R6	Blitz	Bravo	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.08
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.57
R8	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Jonah Overholt

156th • 3-5-1

89%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

4.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Krebs (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Tessa Myers (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Ektor Angelomatis (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Draw vs June Aino (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Flores (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Marissa Boyd (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Seth Shepard (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

30:70

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

65:35

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Draw	✓	0.60	-
R5	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.60
R7	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R9	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

James Arthur

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Amber Zee (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Halstad (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Sean Fox (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Korovesi (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.31
R4	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Ryan Kilpatrick

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Jason Counsman (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Alora Pickering (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Travis Woodward (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Kolbrun Palsdottir (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Rachel Webb (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.52
R6	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Brandon Flores

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Yongji Yang (Unknown)

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Will Rea (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Mottram (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Leo Shea (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Brian Spangler (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R3	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R5	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Connor Matza

dropped • 1-6-0

100%

Meta

-2.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Kurka (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Thomas (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs daren smith (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Leroy Pope III (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Alora Pickering (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Brown (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexander Hempelmann

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Austin Tippen (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.36
R3	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Anthony Chiechi

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Natalie Edwards (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Brian McLachlin (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Kiourkas (Dash) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Nicholas Seman

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Brian McLachlin (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Liam Bennett (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Canales (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Blitz	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

joseph lawson

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Shoopman (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

65:35

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Tessa Myers (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Darren Rennie

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Jeremy Stowe

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Prism) - Expected: 28:72

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Brengartner (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Joseph Janiga

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Zac Manmiller (Dash) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jeffrey Lang (Rhinar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.