Battle Hardened - Pro Tour: Baltimore - Lexi (Blitz)

Lexi

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nicholas Brown

167th • 2-7-0

100%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Wagoner (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Phillip Bradford (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Dylon Brown (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Keenan Morris (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Connor Matza (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Alora Pickering (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Donovan Wilcox (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Baugh

dropped • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Jason Price II (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Williamson (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Kyler Dustin (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Sean Davis (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs nicklas starland (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Spencer Freeman (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Keenan Morris

dropped • 2-3-1

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs David Letourneau (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Zavits (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Draw vs Phillip Bradford (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs James Prince (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Andre Maldonado (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Nicholas Brown (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lukas Miller

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Colton Miller (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Hagberg (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Bowers (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hendrik Wytze Kluitenberg

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Dylon Brown (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Beichler

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Shimon Bandiel (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.