Briar at Battle Hardened - Pro Tour: Baltimore

Briar

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Maxwell Mitchell

33rd • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Gatta (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Gates (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Wolford (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Travis Woodward (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs nathan lapham (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Noah Clark (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Alex Sneed (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R4	Blitz	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.41
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.11
R6	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.82
R9	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Christopher Higashi

41st • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.4

Surp

4.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Robert Abril (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Gates (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Spencer Freeman (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Seth Shepard (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Kyler Dustin (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Owen Young (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Elijah Flanders (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

25:75

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.10
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R7	Blitz	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.72
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.78
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Kevin Canales

45th • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Dylon Brown (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Seman (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Nick Kiourkas (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.49
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.11
R6	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.34
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R8	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Justin Rowland

83rd • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Rachel Webb (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Spencer Freeman (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jeerod Balangan (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Clark (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

25:75

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Long Dao (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Jeff Okrasinski (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

25:75

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Justin Matlack (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.08
R2	Blitz	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.24
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R4	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R6	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.47
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R8	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.69
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Jason Counsman

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Kilpatrick (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Bowers (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas McPherson (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Ravi Nehra (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Wolford (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.14
R5	Blitz	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.61
R7	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Jordan Leggett

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Brian Spangler (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Smith (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Evan Ayer (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Eric Shoopman (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs RONNY MARTIN (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

25:75

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Shawn Sapiel (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.44
R5	Blitz	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.44
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Cody Diaz

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Sevak Voskerchian (Dash) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Frank Reinschreiber (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

25:75

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Graham Molsick (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Diana Myers (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R6	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marissa Boyd

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs nicklas starland (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Chad Emerick (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Oliver (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Erick Boeder (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	Blitz	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Ryan Levy

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

25:75

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs nathan lapham (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Marvin Dominguez (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

25:75

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Akers (Iyslander) - Expected: 25:75

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Dash) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Bowers (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	Blitz	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Natalie Edwards

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Wolford (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Chiechi (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Dash) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Mara Richard (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	Blitz	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

William OBrien

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs benjamin slenczka (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Spencer Fritts (Katsu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Mejac (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Lee Conner (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Katsu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Curtis Roth

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs William Renninger (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Aiden Dee (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Fred Bird (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Tiffany Lefebvre

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Leo Shea (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Popowich (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.