Lexi, Livewire at Calling: Birmingham 2023

Lexi, Livewire

67 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Peter Ward

22nd • 9-2-1

92%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

5.4

Surp

4.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Gould (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Davide Giacca (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Farrow (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Waters (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jake Armes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Draw vs Jeremy Miller (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Steve Thompson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Arian Sultani (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.09
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.39
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Draw	✗	0.29	-
R10	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.49
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

May Made

10th • 9-3-0

100%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

5.2

Surp

3.7

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Tuck (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steve Andrew (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Martin Hechtberger (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christian Weißling (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Samuel Parry (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sergiu Morar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Joel Rencen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sebastian Grøndal (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.02
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.29
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.59
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.81
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Ernesto Silva

15th • 9-3-0

92%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

5.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sébastien Guilbaud (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dimitris Melissinos (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Manuel Wachouschek (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Juha Saarnilampi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.05
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.30
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.16
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.14
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R9	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.40
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.84
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Oscar Richichi

17th • 9-3-0

92%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

5.3

Surp

3.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Larke (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joel Rencen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florin Mazilu (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Igor Koutzevitch (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Stefano Berian (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 73:27

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Stefanos Argyriou (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Hendrik Wytze Kluitenberg (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jack Stoney (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tuomas Lampinen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.07
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.60
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.19
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.27
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.37
R9	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.35
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.84
R11	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.82

Paul Mirande

24th • 9-3-0

100%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

5.7

Surp

4.3

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Jehan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zak Murray (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joel Rencen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sebastian Grøndal (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Isaac Fogg (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Rob Catton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Henrik Montin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Marijn Lybaert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.05
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.34
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.35
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R9	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Brodie Spurlock

25th • 9-3-0

92%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

5.5

Surp

4.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dan York (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Fjell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rafael Boog (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Peter Ward (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Sharif Shaaban (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Robbert Valkeneers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Grégory Lefebvre (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nikola Kramarić (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.08
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.24
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.27
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.46
R11	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.65
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40

26th • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lewis Couperthwaite (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thierry Entringer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Finbarr "Steelfur" Begley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joris Verhelst (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matt Rogers (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ruben Van Dessel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Luka Kramaric (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Joel Rencen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Peter Ward (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.05
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.31
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R9	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.40
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adrian Fjell

27th • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Richard Hughes (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Eddy (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alex Chițu (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Bowen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.15
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.30
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.16
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.32
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R10	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.49
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rafael Salsa

30th • 8-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

5.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Clark (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs George Bowles (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mateusz Sass (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Connor McIndewar (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Gregory Radek (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs James Lester (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 78:22

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Steve Thompson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

80:20

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Giannis Kapatos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.34
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.29
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.21
R8	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.24
R10	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.49
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Marijn Lybaert

34th • 8-4-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peter Trafford (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kailam Dale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Francis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jay Glover (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Luka Kramaric (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs George Jones (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Henrik McQuoid Jespersen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Callum Elcock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Paul Mirande (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.04
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.34
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.54
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Feng

36th • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.9

Surp

3.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Porter (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Henrik Montin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Calf (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Craig Johnson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Even Kverneland (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Samuel Parry (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Joel Rencen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.04
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.15
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.47
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.62
R10	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.49
R12	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Michael Jaszczur

40th • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

5.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Faraj (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rob Emery (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Grøndal (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs George Keys (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Michal Cwik (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.06
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.41
R8	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R9	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.41
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Kevin Pennec

41st • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs George Bowles (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Keys (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Debling (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Man Hiem Cheung (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jaco Sepe (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tom Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Robert Szary (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Gabe Sher (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matt Rogers (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.07
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.29
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.57
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.47
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R12	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.53

Arian Sultani

45th • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

6.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Hughes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Siméon Gruel (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Finbarr "Steelfur" Begley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Grégory Lefebvre (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Eric Severs (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tuomas Lampinen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jacob Clements (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Peter Ward (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Viet Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.75
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R10	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.58
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.70

Rob Catton

50th • 8-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mitch Hewson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Copeman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tomasz Buda (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Collett (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Søren Madsen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs David Dyson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Paul Mirande (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs David Wallner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jacob Clements (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.05
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.05
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.34
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.37
R9	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.70

Adam James

52nd • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

5.1

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel White (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Brookes (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Samyudia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Grøndal (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dean Ebelshäuser (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Michal Cwik (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Kyle Mullings (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.07
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.23
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.34
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R10	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.51
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kyle Mullings

61st • 7-5-0

92%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

5.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Larsson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hendrik Wytze Kluitenberg (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Dyson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robbie Armstrong (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Charlie Fahey (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Robert Catling (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Toon Vertommen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Callum Elcock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Gabe Sher (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Adam James (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.26
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.49
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.41
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gabe Sher

66th • 7-5-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

5.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Evans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Owen Howdon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs George Rodger (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michal Cwik (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Hung Hoang (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Copeman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Kevin Pennec (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Paweł Leszuk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kyle Mullings (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Henrik McQuoid Jespersen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (7.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.04
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.27
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.47
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Sharif Shaaban

72nd • 7-5-0

83%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oliver Dutton (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Ashall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Gordon (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Copeman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs George Keys (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hendrik Wytze Kluitenberg (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Sergiu Morar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs simon diaz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.02
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.08
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.23
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.86
R12	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.25

Joris Verhelst

73rd • 6-6-0

83%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

5.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Clark (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Henrik Montin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Coates (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Parry (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

85:15

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs simon diaz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (6.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.07
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.12
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.23
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.32
R8	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.17
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R11	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R12	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Glenn Van Roey

dropped • 7-4-0

91%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

5.4

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yong Jin Jang (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Macneill (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Josh Newton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Sarrington (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Vaz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ian Holland (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sergiu Morar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.33
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.25
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.25
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R10	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.53
R11	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

David Wallner

dropped • 6-5-0

82%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

5.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Duck (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Quinn Durlston-Powell (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Whewell (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hendrik Wytze Kluitenberg (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Henrik McQuoid Jespersen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs George Keys (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michal Cwik (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Richard Carr (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Rob Catton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.08
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.26
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.37
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.43
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R8	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R9	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mark Henderson

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mathias W (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ays Banning (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs George Keys (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fredrik Fagerberg (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Callum Birkett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.13
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.26
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.41
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.51
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Adam Sarrington

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Gibbons (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jamie Faulkner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tim Coates (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Leila Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mads Kjølby Larsen (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dennis Ryms (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.08
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.60
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Annabelle McQuade

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Alves (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jason Ogden (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Ryms (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Emad Kashy (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Patrik Koller (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.32
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.50
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Christian Weißling

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Owen Cookman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs René Schep (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Walsh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs May Made (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.26
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.13
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

David Calf

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luka Kramaric (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lewis Couperthwaite (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Carr (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bill Stevenson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Thierry Entringer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.16
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.72
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.21
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ed Kennan

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maddalene Delves (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yong Jin Jang (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.10
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Williams (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Diego Giacca (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Giannis Kapatos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Erika Forslöf (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Feng (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.14
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.28
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

George Jones

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kate Dunstone (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Thourgood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christian Johnsen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Antonio Tagliareni (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Connor McGrath (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Marijn Lybaert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.08
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

James Thourgood

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Ward (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs George Jones (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Ormstrup (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Even Kverneland (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Richard Carr (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jay Glover (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.56
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jason Rolfe

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Hicks (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sébastien Guilbaud (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luke/Evelynn Poulter (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Harry Johnson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ross Gauld (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sharif Shaaban (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.72
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.45
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jose Alves

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Grøndal (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Annabelle McQuade (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Steve Andrew (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Haukur Thor Buason (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Javier Querol (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.59
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Keir Sweeney

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michał Sierszulski (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Callum Birkett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jamie Faulkner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.16
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.24
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.23
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marcin Pelzner

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dimitris Melissinos (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Toby Beckham (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Simon Duck (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bernhard Hinna (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Viet Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.09
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Marco Lettieri

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jude Fisher (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Collett (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Henrik McQuoid Jespersen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Williams (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Leila Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Matthias Verbeeck

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Danni Andersen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marcus Archer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andreas Mitterlechner (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ed Kennan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tim Coates (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.18
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.47

Michael Bone

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mike Kerslake (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Grøndal (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yves Meienberg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Piotr Krzempek (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel White (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sebastian Piełudź (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.07
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Noah Hicks

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Quinn Durlston-Powell (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yann HENRI (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robbie Armstrong (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Klaus Poulsen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Farrow (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs James Tague (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.15
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.32
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Paul A Wright

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michal Cwik (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Piotr Krzempek (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Adler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Hughes (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Callum Dorling (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Callum Young (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.30
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.70
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.60
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Athena Halkia

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs nino Zimmermann (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lubos Vanicek (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Morris (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Mason (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 78:22

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Eddy (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.26
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.80

Javier Querol

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mads Kjølby Larsen (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Søren Madsen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hon-man Yau (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 73:27

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Josef Doležal (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Whewell (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jose Alves (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.39
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrick Fowley

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gregory Radek (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Harrison Shore (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adam Harbinson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Florin Mazilu (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Gervolino (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.14
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.50
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Thierry Entringer

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kane Wilson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul Hyman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Liam Holden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Florin Mazilu (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs David Calf (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.08
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Maddalene Delves

dropped • 1-6-0

100%

Meta

-3.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ed Kennan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jude Fisher (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yves Meienberg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Raymond Rouse (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Mc Namara (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs James Duck (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nathan Gibbons (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.60
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Sven Tscheppainz

dropped • 1-6-0

71%

Meta

-2.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Copeman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robbie Armstrong (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oli Cornish (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Marcus Archer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Kelly (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Emma Rumsey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ash Bones (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.72
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-

Connor McGrath

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Parry (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joe Tough (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Wallner (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Debling (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Reece Grimes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs George Jones (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.81
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Even Kverneland

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Connop (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul Wilde (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Parry (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Collett (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs James Thourgood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Feng (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jake Warburton

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Chalk (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Javier Endika García Campo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gregory Radek (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sébastien Guilbaud (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Keven Daymond

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bernhard Hinna (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Marshall (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 73:27

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Harwood (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tom Evans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.17
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.38
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Luke/Evelynn Poulter

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michał Sierszulski (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Brookes (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mohammad Rafiq

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Steiner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ruben Van Dessel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Adler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tom Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Stefan Karlsson

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Connor McIndewar (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michal Cwik (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Liam Canning (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Man Hiem Cheung (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Christian Jelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.47
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Farrow

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Seb Lee (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Natasha Collins (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Ward (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Reece Grimes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Matthew McCherry

dropped • 2-3-1

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Richardson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ville Schalin (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jack Canty (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Jones (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Finlay Freir (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Bernhard Hinna

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Keven Daymond (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas van den Berg (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Harry Johnson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Price (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Marcin Pelzner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Larsson

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Mullings (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Legg (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jamie Fraser (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Connop (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Steve Phillimore (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.28
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Finbarr "Steelfur" Begley

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Viet Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Arian Sultani (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jaco Sepe (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.12
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.28
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jeppe Madsen

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ed Cardall (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs elliot boxall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sandy Green (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Glenn Van Roey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Stefanos Argyriou (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.19
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-

Isaac Murray

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Callum Young (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Philip Gibbons (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kailam Dale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Christopher Clark

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gwen Woods (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Steve Thompson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Siméon Gruel (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Paul Wilde

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jack Lismanis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Even Kverneland (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Alexander Steiner

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mohammad Rafiq (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rhyan Bromell (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs simon diaz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 29:71

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Danny Halstad (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-

Kieran Stratton

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alice Angell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Rambarran (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Hughes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Josh Newton

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Simon Duck (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs George Morehead (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Glenn Van Roey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.21
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Javier Endika García Campo

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tuomas Lampinen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake Warburton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vajithkumar Tharumathas (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Natasha Collins

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Farrow (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.