Calling: Birmingham 2023 - Prism, Awakener of Sol (CC)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Larke

dropped • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oscar Richichi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Waters (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sam Ball (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Murray Iain (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ash Bones (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.12

nino Zimmermann

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Athena Halkia (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Sarrington (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher O'Toole (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ash Bones (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.29
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.12

Aaron Taylor

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher O'Toole (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maciej Walenczykowski (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Jono Paul

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Chappell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.