Dorinthea Ironsong at Calling: Birmingham 2023
Dorinthea Ironsong
12 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
35th • 8-4-0
17%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
5.7
Surp
4.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Javier Endika García Campo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Win vs Patrik Koller (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Paweł Leszuk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 33:67
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jack Raven (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 34:66
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38
Round 8: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Arian Sultani (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Samuel Parry (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Oscar Richichi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
17% (2/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
48th • 8-4-0
25%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
6.0
Surp
5.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 44:56
Round 2: Win vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Callum Elcock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Søren Madsen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs elliot boxall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Keven Daymond (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Adam Faraj (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 46:54
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Grégory Lefebvre (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Michael Feng (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
R10
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Dimitris Melissinos (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Hendrik Wytze Kluitenberg (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 34:66
Round 12: Win vs Theo Maggs (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (3/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.0 total deviation
Difficulty
5.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Bravo, Showstopper | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Bravo, Showstopper | 35% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jono Paul (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Walsh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Theo Markus Tõnnov (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Stefanos Argyriou (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Giannis Kapatos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nathan Hills (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adam James (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Noah Greenwood (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs James Mckeen (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Josh Byram (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Elias Nærland (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Michael Bone (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kieran Stratton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Danni Andersen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Antonio Tagliareni (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Earley (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 34:66
Round 5: Win vs Simon Duck (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs George Bowles (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs elliot boxall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Arian Sultani (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs May Made (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kate Dunstone (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Harrison Shore (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jose Alves (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jason Ogden (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Gary White (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
71%
Meta
-2.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
0.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adam Harbinson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bill Stevenson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 34:66
Round 3: Loss vs Elias Nærland (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs George Morehead (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Contreras (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dan York (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Pennec (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Vajithkumar Tharumathas (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 29:71
Round 5: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Alice Angell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dennis Ryms (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Adrian Samyudia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs George Rodger (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 46:54
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ian Porter (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs George Jones (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adam James (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Luke/Evelynn Poulter (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Owen Cookman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.