Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at Calling: Birmingham 2023

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Giannis Kapatos

58th • 7-5-0

33%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

5.5

Surp

4.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paweł Leszuk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jamie Costello (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Florian Stangassinger (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Chappell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Johannes Schorpp (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Theo Maggs (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Henrik Montin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs simon diaz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

33% (4/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.49
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.77
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.81
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R11	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.88
R12	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Manuel Wachouschek

68th • 7-5-0

42%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nguyen Giang (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Richard Carr (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Danni Andersen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paweł Leszuk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Leila Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Matthew Whewell (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs David Dyson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ruben Van Dessel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

42% (5/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.51
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.71
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R10	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Jacob Bowen

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Fownes (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Mckeen (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Faraj (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aidan Keown (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hung Hoang (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Adrian Fjell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs David Dyson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.22
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.81
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Francesco D'Amendola

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Marshall (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Rodger (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tom Gordon (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Keir Sweeney (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michał Sierszulski (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.67
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Julien Erdreich

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raymond Rouse (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rob Catton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jude Fisher (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Piełudź (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Faraj (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.79
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

George Morehead

dropped • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joel Rencen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Josh Newton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Lester (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Camron Lowe (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dan York (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tom Gould (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Josh Byram

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Hyman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Mcdermott (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel White (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Toby Beckham

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Charlie Fahey (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marcin Pelzner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Guillermo Pedernal (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.