Fai, Rising Rebellion at Calling: Birmingham 2023

Fai, Rising Rebellion

Fai, Rising Rebellion

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

9th • 10-2-0

83%

Meta

+3.4

Perf

5.3

Surp

4.9

Diff

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Lexi, Livewire

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

Dorinthea Ironsong

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maximilian Klein (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

Briar, Warden of Thorns

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dean Ebelshäuser (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 56:44

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Luka Kramaric (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33

Dromai, Ash Artist

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jamie Faulkner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

Katsu, the Wanderer

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nikola Kramarić (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Dromai, Ash Artist

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Joel Rencen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.05
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R9	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R10	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.60
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.45
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

Viserai, Rune Blood

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hung Hoang (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Uzuri, Switchblade

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs simon diaz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Marsh (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 43:57

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 43:57

Viserai, Rune Blood

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Murray Iain (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 64:36

Dromai, Ash Artist

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs John Coombes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.87
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.56
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

Theo Markus Tõnnov

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bill Stevenson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33

Iyslander, Stormbind

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57

Dorinthea Ironsong

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Chappell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

Viserai, Rune Blood

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Morris (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 64:36

Briar, Warden of Thorns

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Samir Sultani (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 56:44

Briar, Warden of Thorns

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 56:44

Dromai, Ash Artist

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.37
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.61
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

Iyslander, Stormbind

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Faraj (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57

Viserai, Rune Blood

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Morris (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 64:36

Uzuri, Switchblade

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Natalia Berger (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Lexi, Livewire

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Javier Querol (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Raven (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 43:57

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Antonio Tagliareni (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33

Katsu, the Wanderer

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Steve Phillimore (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.50
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Benjamin Marshall

dropped • 1-6-0

57%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Dromai, Ash Artist

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Connop (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Lexi, Livewire

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Keven Daymond (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs kurtulus ay (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Katsu, the Wanderer

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs James Duck (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Anya North (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

Katsu, the Wanderer

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Kelly (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

Dromai, Ash Artist

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aidan Keown (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 43:57

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Giannis Kapatos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yann HENRI (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

Briar, Warden of Thorns

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Davide Giacca (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Jones (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33

Katsu, the Wanderer

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrik Koller (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Bravo, Showstopper

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.27
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

Viserai, Rune Blood

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Giacomo Feurich (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 64:36

Briar, Warden of Thorns

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jack Fejer (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 56:44

Iyslander, Stormbind

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57

Viserai, Rune Blood

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Petrone (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Lexi, Livewire

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Oscar Richichi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

Lexi, Livewire

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Adler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs SIMON LLOYD-JONES (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zach Evans (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Lexi, Livewire

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Keven Daymond (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Callum Birkett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 43:57

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Bowen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Dorinthea Ironsong

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel White (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.