Fai, Rising Rebellion at Calling: Birmingham 2023

Fai, Rising Rebellion

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

George Rodger

9th • 10-2-0

67%

Meta

+4.2

Perf

5.8

Surp

5.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maximilian Klein (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dean Ebelshäuser (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Luka Kramaric (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jamie Faulkner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nikola Kramarić (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Joel Rencen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.08
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.21
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.55
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R9	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.76
R10	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.65
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.41
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Emel Walsh

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hung Hoang (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs simon diaz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Marsh (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Murray Iain (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs John Coombes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.71
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Theo Markus Tõnnov

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bill Stevenson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Chappell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Morris (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Samir Sultani (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.47
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.61
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Hon-man Yau

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Faraj (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Morris (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Natalia Berger (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Javier Querol (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Raven (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Antonio Tagliareni (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Steve Phillimore (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.24
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.87
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Benjamin Marshall

dropped • 1-6-0

43%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Connop (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Keven Daymond (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs kurtulus ay (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs James Duck (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Anya North (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Kelly (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.59
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Jamie Costello

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aidan Keown (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Giannis Kapatos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yann HENRI (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Davide Giacca (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Daniel Li

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Jones (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrik Koller (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.61
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.23
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Stefano Berian

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Giacomo Feurich (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jack Fejer (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Petrone (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Oscar Richichi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Tom Evans

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Adler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs SIMON LLOYD-JONES (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zach Evans (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Keven Daymond (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.82
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.09
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

James Mckeen

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Callum Birkett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Bowen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel White (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.