Dromai, Ash Artist at Calling: Birmingham 2023

Dromai, Ash Artist

48 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joel Rencen

11th • 9-3-0

83%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs George Morehead (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Oscar Richichi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Mirande (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Charlie Fahey (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Wallner (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dimitris Melissinos (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Clements (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs May Made (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michael Feng (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs George Rodger (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.13
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.25
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.23
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.88
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.97
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Juha Saarnilampi

28th • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

5.4

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Annabelle McQuade (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ed Cardall (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs George Jones (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Haukur Thor Buason (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ian Holland (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ruben Van Dessel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.09
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.10
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.44
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R8	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.38
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jamie Faulkner

31st • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs kurtulus ay (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Finlay Freir (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Sarrington (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alex Price (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Keir Sweeney (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Richard Carr (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michal Cwik (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs George Rodger (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ian Zhang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Sergiu Morar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.07
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.23
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tadhg Treacy

59th • 7-4-1

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Man Hiem Cheung (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yves Meienberg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs René Schep (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maurice Philip (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Peter Bråss (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Wallner (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Matt Rogers (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Draw vs Bernardo Cardoso (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Sergiu Morar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Whewell (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.52
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.60
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.30
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Eric Severs

70th • 7-5-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Swandale (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Josef Doležal (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Theo Maggs (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Wallner (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jake Armes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Arian Sultani (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Henrik McQuoid Jespersen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Robert Szary (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Viet Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Copeman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Henrik McQuoid Jespersen

74th • 6-6-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

6.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Liam Canning (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Lerens (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marco Lettieri (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Wallner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Henrik Montin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Christian Jelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Marijn Lybaert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Eric Severs (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Richard Carr (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (6.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Bernardo Cardoso

dropped • 7-3-1

91%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

5.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Flynn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Antonis Kazouris (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Grøndal (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Francis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Draw vs Tadhg Treacy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Henrik McQuoid Jespersen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.09
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.07
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.14
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.28
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.50
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.65
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Ian Zhang

dropped • 7-4-0

91%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

5.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Waters (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Price (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Robert Catling (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jay Glover (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Peter Ward (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Paweł Leszuk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jack Stoney (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jamie Faulkner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.15
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.25
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.46
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.45
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.67
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.50
R10	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Whewell

dropped • 6-5-0

82%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Natalia Berger (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Correas (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Wallner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ville Schalin (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Javier Querol (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tadhg Treacy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.04
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.15
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.38
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.58
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.58
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bruno Cracco

dropped • 5-6-0

73%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

5.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Grégory Lefebvre (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mathias W (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Blower (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Vaz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nathan Hills (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Paul A Wright (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jack Stoney (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sharif Shaaban (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.04
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.33
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.37
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.50
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.67
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R9	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jacob Friis Nielsen

dropped • 6-4-0

70%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Boog (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Theo Maggs (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Thourgood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lubos Vanicek (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Glenn Van Roey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.16
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.32
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.42
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.85
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Kailam Dale

dropped • 4-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Diego Giacca (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marijn Lybaert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kristian Svensson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Isaac Murray (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Jaap IJlst (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas McCormick (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Earley (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Draw	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Eyüp Vroegop

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Siméon Gruel (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Raven (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Tague (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Samuel Thomas (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs David Dyson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Stuart Robb (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.28
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.55

Gary White

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gwen Woods (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel VandenBurg (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steve Thompson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Paweł Leszuk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs James Ashall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Steve Andrew (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.58
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Jake Armes

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jay Glover (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ash Bones (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maurice Philip (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Callum Young (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Peter Ward (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Severs (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.53
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.60
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joshua Kinnett

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stuart Robb (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joe Tough (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Debling (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs SIMON LLOYD-JONES (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.61

Owen Howdon

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Fogg (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Legg (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Waters (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sergiu Morar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Paul Hyman

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Byram (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joe Whetter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thierry Entringer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Peter Trafford (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Gervolino (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Seb Lee (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Copeman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.21
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.89
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.33
R7	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Henrik McQuoid Jespersen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs SIMON LLOYD-JONES (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jamie McCabe (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thierry Entringer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Theo Maggs (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.17
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.59
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Tim Dasiukevich

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Mc Namara (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Thomas (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Sarrington (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tuomas Lampinen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Davies (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Whewell (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.11
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.40
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.52
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tomasz Buda

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Damon Harbinson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Tague (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Florian Stangassinger (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rob Catton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Danni Andersen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.11
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.35
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.68
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.76
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Bruno Vale Fernandes

dropped • 3-3-1

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Yves Meienberg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Mason (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Petrone (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

90:10

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Larke (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 90:10

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Severs (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mathias W (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.09
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

John Coombes

dropped • 3-3-1

86%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Kristian Svensson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Rayner (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adam Haill (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Christopher O'Toole (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Emel Walsh (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.39
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Dan York

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Josef Doležal (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Hicks (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs George Morehead (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nathan Gibbons (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Camron Lowe (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.07
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.39
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Dennis Ryms

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Mason (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Filip Maslo (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Annabelle McQuade (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Viet Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Adam Sarrington (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.76
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jose Luis Saenz Soria

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Dales (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mayyar Ghulman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Coombes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Leila Green (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Theo Markus Tõnnov (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Maurice Philip

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Gibbons (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jake Armes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Brookes (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tadhg Treacy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Rob Emery (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Aaron Eddy (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.55
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Sebastian Piełudź

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Swandale (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Waters (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 35:65

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Samuel Thomas (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Bone (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.33
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Yves Meienberg

dropped • 2-4-1

86%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tadhg Treacy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maddalene Delves (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Bone (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Ogden (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jason Kelly (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tom Fownes (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Zak Mc Gowan

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Tuck (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stefanos Argyriou (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs James Tague (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Simon Lüthi (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Anya North (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.45

Darren Hazelden

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Kenworthy (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Parry (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Swandale (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Walsh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Harrison Shore (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.10
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Matthew Waters

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Larke (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 90:10

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zak Murray (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Piełudź (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Ward (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Owen Howdon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.05
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Jones

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mayyar Ghulman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raymond Rouse (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sean Jehan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew McCherry (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Maciej Walenczykowski (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.88
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Michael Williams

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fredrik Fagerberg (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Reece Grimes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Marco Lettieri (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Isaac Fogg (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.40
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Vajithkumar Tharumathas

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Craig Johnson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Bowles (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Javier Endika García Campo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Violet Burn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kristian Svensson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Man Hiem Cheung (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Joshua Connop

dropped • 1-4-1

83%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Even Kverneland (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Marshall (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oscar Sigurdsson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Larsson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Nathan Gibbons (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.45
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Draw	✓	0.73	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Aidan Keown

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jamie Costello (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mike Kerslake (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oliver M (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Bowen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Danni Andersen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.62
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Christopher Chalk

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jake Warburton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rob Catton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Maciej Walenczykowski (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.32
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Justin Walsh

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs SIMON LLOYD-JONES (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Chappell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Weißling (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Darren Hazelden (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Callum Birkett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.12
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Kristian Svensson

dropped • 1-3-1

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs John Coombes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mitch Hewson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kailam Dale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs simon diaz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Vajithkumar Tharumathas (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Philip Gibbons

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Sommer (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Siméon Gruel

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eyüp Vroegop (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sam Ball (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arian Sultani (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Clark (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Daniel Hughes

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Florian Stangassinger (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Arian Sultani (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kieran Stratton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Connor McIndewar (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Filip Maslo

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hendrik Wytze Kluitenberg (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Reece Grimes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Martin Bergström (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dennis Ryms (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.69
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jude Fisher

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marco Lettieri (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maddalene Delves (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Sandy Green

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dean Alldread (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Jones (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeppe Madsen (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Dyson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Kamil "Kaka" Żerek

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Piełudź (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Harwood (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michał Sierszulski (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Gould (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Ryan Mcdermott

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Josh Byram (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Trafford (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ash Bones (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.