Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Birmingham 2023
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
12 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.5
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Hughes (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 36:64
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs George Morehead (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mitch Hewson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Martin Hechtberger (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Dean Alldread (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Edward Bayford (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Paul Hyman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Sarrington (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Robert Szary (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 28:72
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs elliot boxall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Peter Bråss (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-1
0%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Chris Macneill (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ed Kennan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs John Coombes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
Round 4: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Kailam Dale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs simon diaz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Seb Lee (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
0% (0/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Draw |
| R6 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Jones (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 36:64
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Noah Greenwood (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Violet Burn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tadhg Treacy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Joe Whetter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-1
57%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.3
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Callum Dorling (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Toby Beckham (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Natalia Berger (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs James Ashall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Yann HENRI (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Violet Burn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Draw |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Vajithkumar Tharumathas (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Liam Holden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Maximilien Berger (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Adam Jones (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Philip Gibbons (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
Round 4: Win vs Bill Stevenson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ross Gauld (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Win |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.7
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ruben Van Dessel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Gervolino (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adam Haill (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Win vs Alexander Steiner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Wallner (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Patrick Mc Namara (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 36:64
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mads Kjølby Larsen (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 28:72
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs SIMON LLOYD-JONES (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christopher Townsend (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Chalk (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ethan Rambarran (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Josef Doležal (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Athena Halkia (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.8
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Danny Halstad (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Coombes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Earley (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 16:84
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Dinsdale (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Connor McIndewar (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 28:72
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Oliver Dutton (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.