Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling: Birmingham 2023

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Finlay Shepherd

77th • 6-6-0

50%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.8

Surp

3.7

Diff

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Briar, Warden of Thorns

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stefaan Morbee (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Johannes Schorpp (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Callum Elcock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matt Rogers (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ruben Van Dessel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Lexi, Livewire

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84

Lexi, Livewire

15:85

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84

Iyslander, Stormbind

15:85

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Viet Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 15:85

Dromai, Ash Artist

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Whewell (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

Iyslander, Stormbind

15:85

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Copeman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory

Lexi, Livewire

15:85

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Sharif Shaaban (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R9	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R10	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	15%	Win	✗	0.85	2.48
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcus Archer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Katsu, the Wanderer

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Harrison Shore (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Bravo, Showstopper

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yong Jin Jang (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Lexi, Livewire

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Keir Sweeney (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

Iyslander, Stormbind

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 15:85

Iyslander, Stormbind

15:85

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 15:85

Briar, Warden of Thorns

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Isaac Fogg (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Win	✗	0.84	1.52
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

Dromai, Ash Artist

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Owen Howdon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

Lexi, Livewire

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Steiner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

Briar, Warden of Thorns

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Liam Canning (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Lexi, Livewire

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84

Lexi, Livewire

15:85

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs David Calf (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84

Katsu, the Wanderer

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs James Duck (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Win	✗	0.84	0.76
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

Viserai, Rune Blood

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Morris (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Uzuri, Switchblade

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Lexi, Livewire

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Francis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Dromai, Ash Artist

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Christopher O'Toole (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.5

Diff

Bravo, Showstopper

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Holden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Dromai, Ash Artist

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake Armes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

Briar, Warden of Thorns

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mitch Hewson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Dromai, Ash Artist

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Mcdermott (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Prism, Awakener of Sol

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs nino Zimmermann (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs David Larke (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Lexi, Livewire

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sven Tscheppainz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.85
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Win	✗	0.84	2.66

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

Lexi, Livewire

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs May Made (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84

Dromai, Ash Artist

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zak Mc Gowan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Gibbons (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Richardson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Callum Elcock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Dromai, Ash Artist

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Uzuri, Switchblade

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Seb Lee (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Lexi, Livewire

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Keven Daymond (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84

Katsu, the Wanderer

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mathias W (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.59
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

Dorinthea Ironsong

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Camron Lowe (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Callum Birkett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Bravo, Showstopper

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Lexi, Livewire

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-

Daniel Baxendale

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

Iyslander, Stormbind

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 15:85

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kane Wilson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Iyslander, Stormbind

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Legg (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 15:85

Iyslander, Stormbind

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

Lexi, Livewire

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sharif Shaaban (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84

Briar, Warden of Thorns

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joe Potter (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Briar, Warden of Thorns

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Piotr Krzempek (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sam Williams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

Katsu, the Wanderer

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Dromai, Ash Artist

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Coombes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.