Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
77th • 6-6-0
50%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
4.6
Surp
3.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Stefaan Morbee (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Johannes Schorpp (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Callum Elcock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matt Rogers (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ruben Van Dessel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
15:85
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87
15:85
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87
20:80
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Viet Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 21:79
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Whewell (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
Round 11: Win vs Matthew Copeman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
15:85
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Sharif Shaaban (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R9 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 20% | Loss |
| R10 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 20% | Win |
| R12 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marcus Archer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Harrison Shore (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yong Jin Jang (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44
Round 4: Win vs Keir Sweeney (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 21:79
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 21:79
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Isaac Fogg (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 20% | Loss |
| R7 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Owen Howdon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
Round 2: Win vs Alexander Steiner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Liam Canning (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87
15:85
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David Calf (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs James Duck (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Thomas Morris (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Francis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Christopher O'Toole (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
4.0
Surp
4.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Liam Holden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jake Armes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mitch Hewson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Mcdermott (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs nino Zimmermann (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David Larke (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
Round 7: Win vs Sven Tscheppainz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs May Made (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zak Mc Gowan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nathan Gibbons (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Richardson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Callum Elcock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
Round 2: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Seb Lee (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Keven Daymond (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mathias W (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Camron Lowe (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Callum Birkett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 21:79
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kane Wilson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Legg (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 21:79
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 21:79
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.8
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sharif Shaaban (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joe Potter (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Piotr Krzempek (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sam Williams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
0.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs John Coombes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.