Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Calling: Birmingham 2023
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
19 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 10-3-0
46%
Meta
+4.3
Perf
6.4
Surp
6.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ethan Rambarran (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jack Lismanis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tom Fownes (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
Round 5: Win vs Tim Coates (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Fredrik Fagerberg (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 7: Win vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 8: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Round 9: Win vs Jamie Faulkner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs May Made (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
Round 12: Win vs Jack Stoney (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
25:75
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
46% (6/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+4.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
6.4 total deviation
Difficulty
6.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R13 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
38th • 8-4-0
67%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
5.1
Surp
3.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Harwood (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Blower (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Finlay Shepherd (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nathan Hills (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Florin Mazilu (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Kyle Mullings (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Marijn Lybaert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Viet Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
Round 11: Win vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Hendrik Wytze Kluitenberg (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
46th • 8-4-0
67%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
5.0
Surp
3.5
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Giannis Kapatos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tuomas Lampinen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Gary White (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jack Raven (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Robbert Valkeneers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Gabe Sher (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
20:80
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 18:82
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 20% | Loss |
| R12 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joe Tough (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dean Ebelshäuser (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marcin Pelzner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Copeman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
Round 6: Win vs Gustavo Caperan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Haukur Thor Buason (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Copeman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Ormstrup (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Paul Wilde (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marc Alexandre (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mohammad Rafiq (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Pennec (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
Round 2: Win vs Filip Maslo (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Owen Cookman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Williams (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Farrow (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Charlie Fahey (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 20% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.7
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Walsh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tom Evans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nathan Eastwood (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jorge Expósito Valiente (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Samir Sultani (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Kinnett (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Mason (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Round 2: Win vs Liam Holden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marijn Lybaert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Rob Emery (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 18:82
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Li (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dean Alldread (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jamie Costello (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Jack Mountford (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joel Rencen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Darren Hazelden (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Paul Wilde (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kevin Pennec (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dimitris Melissinos (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 18:82
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Robert Szary (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samir Sultani (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jack Raven (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
Round 4: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Wallner (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Adler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Man Hiem Cheung (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Harry Johnson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Danny Halstad (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Josef Doležal (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Guillermo Pedernal (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Davide Giacca (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Paul A Wright (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew McCherry (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David McAllan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 18:82
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Tuck (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ian Porter (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 2: Loss vs Steve Thompson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sven Tscheppainz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jack Canty (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tom Evans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Paul A Wright (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mohammad Rafiq (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Anya North (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hung Hoang (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tom Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs James Thourgood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs David Dyson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
Round 2: Win vs Michael Jones (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs elliot boxall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Davide Giacca (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
Round 2: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Thomas (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 18:82
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tom Evans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.