Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Calling: Birmingham 2023
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
19 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 10-3-0
54%
Meta
+3.9
Perf
6.3
Surp
5.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ethan Rambarran (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jack Lismanis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tom Fownes (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tim Coates (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Fredrik Fagerberg (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
Round 8: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 9: Win vs Jamie Faulkner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs May Made (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Jack Stoney (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
54% (7/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
6.3 total deviation
Difficulty
5.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
38th • 8-4-0
50%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
5.5
Surp
3.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Harwood (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Blower (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Finlay Shepherd (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nathan Hills (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Florin Mazilu (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Kyle Mullings (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Marijn Lybaert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Viet Pham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Hendrik Wytze Kluitenberg (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
46th • 8-4-0
67%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
5.8
Surp
3.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Giannis Kapatos (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tuomas Lampinen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
Round 4: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs Gary White (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jack Raven (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Robbert Valkeneers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Gabe Sher (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joe Tough (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dean Ebelshäuser (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marcin Pelzner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Copeman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gustavo Caperan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Haukur Thor Buason (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Copeman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Ormstrup (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Paul Wilde (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marc Alexandre (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mohammad Rafiq (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Pennec (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
Round 2: Win vs Filip Maslo (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Owen Cookman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Williams (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Farrow (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Charlie Fahey (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Walsh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
Round 3: Loss vs Tom Evans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nathan Eastwood (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jorge Expósito Valiente (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Samir Sultani (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Kinnett (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
17%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Mason (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 60:40
Round 2: Win vs Liam Holden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marijn Lybaert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Rob Emery (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Li (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dean Alldread (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jamie Costello (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39
Round 4: Win vs Jack Mountford (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joel Rencen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alvaro Francisco Toledano Benito (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Darren Hazelden (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Paul Wilde (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kevin Pennec (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dimitris Melissinos (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Robert Szary (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samir Sultani (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jack Raven (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Wallner (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Adler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Man Hiem Cheung (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Harry Johnson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Danny Halstad (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Josef Doležal (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Guillermo Pedernal (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Davide Giacca (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Paul A Wright (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew McCherry (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David McAllan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Tuck (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ian Porter (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Loss vs Steve Thompson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sven Tscheppainz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jack Canty (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tom Evans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Paul A Wright (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mohammad Rafiq (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Anya North (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hung Hoang (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tom Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs James Thourgood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs David Dyson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
Round 2: Win vs Michael Jones (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs elliot boxall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Davide Giacca (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
Round 2: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Thomas (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63
Round 4: Loss vs Tom Evans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.