Dromai, Ash Artist at United States National Championship

Dromai, Ash Artist

56 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jason Watkins

10th • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

6.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zach Bunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Unknown)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Joe Colon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.59
R13	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.38
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.86

Andrew Rudin

15th • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

6.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryson Peek (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Liwag (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bea Budnik (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Trenton McBride (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.13
R12	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.72
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.86

Lucas Molho

24th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Darren Knopes (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Peter Desautels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Devin Rattenni (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R11	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.40
R12	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R14	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.79

Craig Pollack

25th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Pepe (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Lee (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Caleb Engen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs William Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Alan Hoang (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

75:25

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.05
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.15
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.27
R13	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R14	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.80

Alex Becker

27th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kayla Ginter (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michelle Chmura (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bryan Apfelbaum (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Paul White (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Alexander Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs David Andrews (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Pedro Esaki (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.63
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R14	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.12

Tim Casey

73rd • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ilana Hensley (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Damien Riggins (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeerod Balangan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Caleb Womack (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Dagan White (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.35
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.13
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.24
R13	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R14	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.44

Christopher Iaali

11th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

90:10

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 90:10

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Benjamin Hebert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Caleb Engen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Michael Dalton (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.06
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.58
R13	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.66
R14	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.79

Alexander Vore

30th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Caleb Engen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alex Becker (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Bryan Knecht (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs CODY READY (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.19
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.66
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75

CODY READY

52nd • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tristen Farmer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Woodland (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raymond Griffin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Pedro Esaki (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Eric Lin (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R11	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.54
R12	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R13	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.63
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mara Faris

74th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Woodland (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sean Fox (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Ian Becker (Unknown)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.45
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R13	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.34
R14	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75

Matthew Vore

76th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

5.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Austin Barta (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mason Paladino (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Felipe Restrepo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alejandro Ziegenhirt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jacob Kissel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.10
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.46
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.34
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.86

Ryan Barnett

78th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.9

Diff

90:10

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 90:10

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Norah Porter (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Machusak (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs John Record (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Adam Columbia (Unknown)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Zack Phillips (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.02
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.17
R12	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R13	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.86

Chris Legg

108th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Elsey (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Devin Rattenni (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

90:10

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ryan Brown (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 90:10

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R11	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.23
R13	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.63
R14	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Zachary Wallach

123rd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jake Woodward (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Hebert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Van Sant (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Mender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs David Lee (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Darren Knopes (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.35
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.13
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.38
R14	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.62

Natalie Hunt

86th • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jake Leonard (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Unknown)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Hawkinson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.15
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R14	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Connor Bryant

116th • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joe Mastowski (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Austin Kim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs TJ Johnson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joshua Kehe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joel Recinos III (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jeff Stamm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.17
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.86

Zoey (Zuppy) Gerstner

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Bell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Connar Bodoh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Tickal (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steven Doan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Unknown)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Michael Fay (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.68
R11	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Elise Symmes

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ulrich Sovitzky (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Santa (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Werner (Unknown)

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Mark Morrison

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Craig Krempels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Dakotah Kintigh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.08
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.48
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.64
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Tyler Horspool

dropped • 4-0-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Johnson (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Herbert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gary Gold (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Jesse Machusak

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Byrn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jake Torres (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Barnett (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Justin Liwag

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Fields (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Will Rea (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Nicholas Tran

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zephen James (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Elijah Flanders (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Phillip Manwaring

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Carson Osborne (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Amber Zee (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zack Covington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zack Phillips (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.78
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.01
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Zachary Knutson

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Preston Stahley (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Derek Anderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Evan Bridges (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.10
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Benjamin Shewan

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Angus Blaxall (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Sixto (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Connar Bodoh

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Felipe Restrepo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zoey (Zuppy) Gerstner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sarah Sloat (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zak Cargin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Daniel Chilgren

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rachel Stoddard (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Chiechi (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Prejean (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Daniel Ferrara

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zach Benton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Canady (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.34
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Humbert

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Green (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs TCGTed Grabow (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Kehe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rachel Stoddard (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.45

Dennis Pham

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tae Kim (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emery Powell (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.20

Ilana Hensley

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Casey (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chase Osborne (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Walsh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Jeremiah Gardner

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Colin Turner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jon Ho (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Green (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Jacobs (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Joe Fisher

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Donovan Mitchell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Devin Rattenni (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Joseph Kaiser

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Solymos (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Rath (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mathew Zoglman-Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Kyle Mattinson

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Cudney (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Dart (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Michael Keating

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Randy Wood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Peter Zsiga (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Lin (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thrad Weibley (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.78
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.61

Ryan Mound

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Long (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Vinh Vien

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nik Dinnis (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs jaime bessett (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emmanuel Barron (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Anthony Faciane

dropped • 1-1-2

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Pedro Esaki (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Burnham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Josh Johnson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Draw	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Draw	✓	0.76	-

Steven Jeffs

dropped • 1-2-1

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 34:66

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Unknown)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Matthew Yorko (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Byrn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Theodore Maximiuk

dropped • 1-2-1

75%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Tickal (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Mott (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

90:10

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Jordan McClure (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 90:10

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.01
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	90%	Draw	✓	0.90	-

Adam Fischer

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Walsh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Reed (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Kurka (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Alex Currie

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Raj Giri (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyler Dustin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Evans (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.69
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brandon Green

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Humbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chase Osborne

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ilana Hensley (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony DT Zichella (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

John Tucker

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James LeResche (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tony Mapelli (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jonathan Jackson

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elijah Flanders (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Perry (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James LeResche (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.75
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Joshua Paris

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Ramirez (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs George Ferris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Darren Knopes (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Leo Shea

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Pearcy (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake Ausdemore (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Byrn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Arthur Reynolds (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

MOISES LOPEZ

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alejandro Cuevas (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Cudney (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Williams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Michael Lau

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Williamson (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Porter Jones (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Colin Wong (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrick Weiss

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Tellez (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Jones (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Bannigan (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Robert Sievert

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Brown (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 90:10

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jake Woodward (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Pearcy (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.08
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Zak Cargin

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joe Colon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.34
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brooks Mitchell

dropped • 0-3-1

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Majin Bae (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Nemeth (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Angel Gonzalez (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Adam Tran (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.