United States National Championship - Dromai, Ash Artist (CC)

Dromai, Ash Artist

56 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jason Watkins

10th • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

5.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zach Bunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Unknown)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Joe Colon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.47
R13	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.43
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.72

Andrew Rudin

15th • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

6.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryson Peek (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Liwag (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bea Budnik (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Trenton McBride (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.59
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.59
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.72

Lucas Molho

24th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Darren Knopes (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Peter Desautels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Devin Rattenni (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.15
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R11	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.40
R12	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R14	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.79

Craig Pollack

25th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Pepe (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Lee (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Caleb Engen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs William Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Alan Hoang (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.05
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.16
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.32
R13	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R14	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.18

Alex Becker

27th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kayla Ginter (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michelle Chmura (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bryan Apfelbaum (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Paul White (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Alexander Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs David Andrews (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Pedro Esaki (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.93
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R14	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.81

Tim Casey

73rd • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

5.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ilana Hensley (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Damien Riggins (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeerod Balangan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Caleb Womack (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Dagan White (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.44
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.51
R13	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R14	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.76

Christopher Iaali

11th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Benjamin Hebert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Caleb Engen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Michael Dalton (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.23
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.63
R13	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.66
R14	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.79

Alexander Vore

30th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Caleb Engen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alex Becker (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Bryan Knecht (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs CODY READY (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.66
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75

CODY READY

52nd • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tristen Farmer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Woodland (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raymond Griffin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Pedro Esaki (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Eric Lin (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R11	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.58
R12	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R13	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.68
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mara Faris

74th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Woodland (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sean Fox (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Ian Becker (Unknown)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.50
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R12	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R13	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.63
R14	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75

Matthew Vore

76th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

5.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Austin Barta (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mason Paladino (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Felipe Restrepo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alejandro Ziegenhirt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jacob Kissel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.10
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.67
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.35
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R13	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.63
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.72

Ryan Barnett

78th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Norah Porter (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Machusak (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs John Record (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Adam Columbia (Unknown)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Zack Phillips (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.08
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.21
R12	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R13	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.72

Chris Legg

108th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Elsey (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Devin Rattenni (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ryan Brown (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.15
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R11	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.92
R13	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.68
R14	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Zachary Wallach

123rd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

5.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jake Woodward (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Hebert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Van Sant (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Mender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs David Lee (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Darren Knopes (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.17
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.44
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.43
R14	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.04

Natalie Hunt

86th • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jake Leonard (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Unknown)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Hawkinson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.20
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R14	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Connor Bryant

116th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joe Mastowski (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Austin Kim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs TJ Johnson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joshua Kehe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joel Recinos III (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jeff Stamm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.21
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R13	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.72

Zoey (Zuppy) Gerstner

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Bell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Connar Bodoh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Tickal (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steven Doan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Unknown)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Michael Fay (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.77
R11	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Elise Symmes

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ulrich Sovitzky (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Santa (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Werner (Unknown)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Mark Morrison

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Craig Krempels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Dakotah Kintigh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.08
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.54
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.59
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Tyler Horspool

dropped • 4-0-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Johnson (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Herbert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gary Gold (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Jesse Machusak

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Byrn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jake Torres (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Barnett (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Justin Liwag

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Fields (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Will Rea (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Nicholas Tran

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zephen James (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Elijah Flanders (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Phillip Manwaring

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Carson Osborne (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Amber Zee (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zack Covington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zack Phillips (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.95
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.98

Zachary Knutson

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Preston Stahley (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Derek Anderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Evan Bridges (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.10
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Benjamin Shewan

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Angus Blaxall (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 85:15

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Sixto (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.06
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Connar Bodoh

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Felipe Restrepo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zoey (Zuppy) Gerstner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sarah Sloat (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zak Cargin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Daniel Chilgren

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rachel Stoddard (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Chiechi (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Prejean (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Daniel Ferrara

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zach Benton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Canady (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.51
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Humbert

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Green (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs TCGTed Grabow (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Kehe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rachel Stoddard (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.68

Dennis Pham

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tae Kim (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emery Powell (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.35

Ilana Hensley

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Casey (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chase Osborne (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Walsh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.98

Jeremiah Gardner

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Colin Turner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jon Ho (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Green (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Jacobs (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Joe Fisher

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Donovan Mitchell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Devin Rattenni (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Joseph Kaiser

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Solymos (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Rath (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mathew Zoglman-Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Kyle Mattinson

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Cudney (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Dart (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Michael Keating

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Randy Wood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Peter Zsiga (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Lin (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thrad Weibley (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.69

Ryan Mound

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Long (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Vinh Vien

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nik Dinnis (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs jaime bessett (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emmanuel Barron (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Anthony Faciane

dropped • 1-1-2

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Pedro Esaki (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Burnham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Josh Johnson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Draw	✓	0.73	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	75%	Draw	✓	0.75	-

Steven Jeffs

dropped • 1-2-1

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Unknown)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Matthew Yorko (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Byrn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Draw	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Theodore Maximiuk

dropped • 1-2-1

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Tickal (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Mott (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Jordan McClure (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.95
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Draw	✓	0.65	-

Adam Fischer

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Walsh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Reed (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Kurka (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Houk (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Alex Currie

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Raj Giri (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyler Dustin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Evans (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.88
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brandon Green

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Humbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chase Osborne

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ilana Hensley (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony DT Zichella (Unknown)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

John Tucker

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James LeResche (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tony Mapelli (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Jonathan Jackson

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elijah Flanders (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Perry (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James LeResche (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Joshua Paris

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Ramirez (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs George Ferris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Darren Knopes (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.67
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Leo Shea

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Pearcy (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake Ausdemore (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Byrn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Arthur Reynolds (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

MOISES LOPEZ

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alejandro Cuevas (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Cudney (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Williams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Michael Lau

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Williamson (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Porter Jones (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Colin Wong (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrick Weiss

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Tellez (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Jones (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Bannigan (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Robert Sievert

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Brown (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jake Woodward (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Pearcy (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Zak Cargin

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joe Colon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.51
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brooks Mitchell

dropped • 0-3-1

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Majin Bae (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Nemeth (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 49:51

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Angel Gonzalez (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Adam Tran (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.