Fai, Rising Rebellion at United States National Championship
Fai, Rising Rebellion
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
118th • 5-2-1
75%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Isaac Houk (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 56:44
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Josh Johnson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Dalton (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 56:44
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Draw vs Justin Rowland (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Zac Bailey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73
65:35
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs David Lee (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33
R14
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Draw |
| R12 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R13 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R14 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
4.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nathan Dollman (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ethan Van Sant (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 43:57
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adam Columbia (Unknown)
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gary Gold (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73
Round 11: Win vs Jake Leonard (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs ray lahann (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bryson Peek (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Alexander Caplinger (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.8
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Kehe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs jaime bessett (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Angus Blaxall (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Angel Gonzalez (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Zack Covington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Rutkowski (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Stowe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Unknown)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Grytness (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Ferguson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christopher Little (Unknown)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ethan Van Sant (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Barnes (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Davis Purcell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adam Leavitt (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Ramirez (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Brown (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andy truong (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Manwaring (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs christian gilbert (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Unknown)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Sanmiguel (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 56:44
Round 3: Loss vs Theodore Maximiuk (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.