Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at United States National

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Pedro Esaki

46th • 3-4-1

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Damon Terry (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Bugoci (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Pheano Black (Unknown)

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs CODY READY (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

15:85

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joe Colon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 16:84

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Alex Becker (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Draw	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.23
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Bryce Henschel

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Brown (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wyatt Leasure (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Fowler

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Dollman (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyruss Sennett (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Steven Bowers

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Harper (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Lin (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Lee (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	15%	Win	✗	0.85	0.68
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.