United States National Championship - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Pedro Esaki

46th • 3-4-1

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Damon Terry (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Bugoci (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Pheano Black (Unknown)

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs CODY READY (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

15:85

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joe Colon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 13:87

25:75

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Alex Becker (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Draw	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R11	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Win	✗	0.73	2.80
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Bryce Henschel

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 21:79

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Brown (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wyatt Leasure (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Daniel Fowler

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Dollman (Unknown)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyruss Sennett (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Steven Bowers

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Harper (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Lin (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Lee (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	20%	Win	✗	0.79	0.57
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.