Dorinthea Ironsong at United States National Championship
Dorinthea Ironsong
21 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
14th • 6-2-0
12%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
4.3
Surp
8.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Thomas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
Round 3: Win vs David Elrod (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Levy (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Round 12: Win vs Ian Shaffer (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Tony Mapelli (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
12% (1/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
8.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Win |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
51st • 6-2-0
25%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
4.0
Surp
4.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jeff Stamm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Craig Pollack (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Unknown)
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Loss |
107th • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.9
Surp
3.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Samuel Reno (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bryan Warner (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
Round 3: Win vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs christian gilbert (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Steven Doan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Porter Jones (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R14 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
130th • 4-4-0
25%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Phil Hensley (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65
Round 3: Win vs Raj Giri (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Justin Powell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Ryan Barnett (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Yongji Yang (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R14 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Loss |
44th • 3-5-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dylan Williamson (Unknown)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jude Cornett (Unknown)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chris Legg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Pheano Black (Unknown)
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R14 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
148th • 3-5-0
25%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dylan Grytness (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cole Torres (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Darren Rennie (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs John Abanto (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R14 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zephen James (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Schalich (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Thomas Yarbrough (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Zack Covington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Kurka (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Davis Purcell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Julian Helgeson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matt Kohls (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Harrison Timothy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Evan Dyck (Unknown)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Record (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Gump (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Herbert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Justin Salmon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
2.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Mink (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Damon Terry (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ryan Schutter (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Corcoran (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs CODY READY (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chase Osborne (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Riley Adams (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Yorko (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs William Pearlman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dave Lin (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Win vs Rogelio Marroquin (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Fay (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Raj Giri (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew Yauger (Unknown)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Justin Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Feng (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brishen Jaimes (Unknown)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Shawn Adams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Schutter (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jason Nakata (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Caplinger (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs David Sitrick (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Liam Trodden (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Round 4: Win vs Jordan Leggett (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs John Record (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 56:44
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sean Biava (Unknown)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brishen Jaimes (Unknown)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
Round 4: Win vs Chris Tellez (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 35% | Win |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Willard (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Prejean (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.