United States National Championship - Iyslander, Stormbind (CC)

Iyslander, Stormbind

59 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Oswald

3rd • 7-3-0

70%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.6

Surp

5.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyruss Sennett (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pheano Black (Unknown)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Sixto (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Michael Feng (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Charles Dunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Matt Kohls (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R16 CC

Round 16: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.07
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.26
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.10
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.82
R14	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.19
R15	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.28
R16	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Daniel Rutkowski

5th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

5.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sarah Sloat (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joe Colon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bea Budnik (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Caleb Engen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Lucas Molho (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Pheano Black (Unknown)

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jacob Hawkinson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.10
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.19
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R11	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.65
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.52
R13	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.18
R15	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Dyllon Dietz

26th • 7-1-0

88%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

5.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alberto Ruiz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bryan Warner (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Cæruleus Silver (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Louis Solymos (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Porter Jones (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.25
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.90
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.10
R13	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R14	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.51

Majin Bae

35th • 7-1-0

75%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

5.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brooks Mitchell (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sean Biava (Unknown)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Josef Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jack Sandau (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Dave Lin (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Ian Shaffer (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.14
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.28
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.26
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.10
R13	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.39
R14	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.15

John Zapata

54th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zach Bunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt Johnson (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brendan Patrick (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs David Andrews (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Dayna Hagewood (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.57
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R13	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.56
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Liam Trodden

55th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emery Powell (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nick Huskinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs George Dilling (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Andrews (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jonathan Sixto (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.28
R13	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Adam Fronsee

66th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wes Cothran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steven Doan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steven Nemeth (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Natalie Hunt (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Yongji Yang (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Liam Trodden (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Ulrich Sovitzky (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.18
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.28
R13	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.46

Matthew Tickal

72nd • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs John Abanto (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Theodore Maximiuk (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zoey (Zuppy) Gerstner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Rath (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ryan Brown (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ryan Rich (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Ethan Oechsle (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs STEVEN HAWKER (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.90
R12	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.28
R13	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.15

Wesley Dong

82nd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

6.1

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Lin (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Thorington (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Tyler Biggs (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Chris Legg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.28
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.26
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.24
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.28
R14	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.00

Collins Mullen

112th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Trenton McBride (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Bowers (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Fay (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Fay (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs STEVEN HAWKER (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jacob Kissel (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.18
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.13
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.93
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R13	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.15

Robin Avenoso

18th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Thorington (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Long (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joe Fisher (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jake Ausdemore (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.18
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.28
R14	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Michael Fay

150th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Werner (Unknown)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Sandau (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aidan Arruza (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Darren Rennie (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Bell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Zoey (Zuppy) Gerstner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Unknown)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.10
R13	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.86
R14	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Levy

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James LeResche (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luke MacDowall (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ethan Oechsle (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.69
R11	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

JP Coleman

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gerald Toms (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs NIGEL LOUTZENHISER (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Eric Lin (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.21
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.32
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Cody Williams

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Ramirez (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Abanto (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jake Wenger (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.86
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.40

Eric Dauernnheim

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Becker (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charles Gilbert (Katsu) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ariana Loveday (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Katsu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Jesse Kennon

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs NIGEL LOUTZENHISER (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Johnny Wedzicha (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rhea Adams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Joe Mastowski

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Angus Blaxall (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Randy Wood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zachary Burrell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.05
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lahoci Franco

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian Shaffer (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rhea Adams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Columbia (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mathew Zoglman-Garcia

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Evans (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Remington Aalbers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Sage Husanu

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Robert Sievert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Green (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

William Garcia

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Greg Mitchell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charlton Smith (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Craig Pollack (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.05
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Zachary Adams

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Scott Krehbiel (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Andrews (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kelly Angell (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Austin Kim

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Porter Jones (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jomar Rosete (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Bea Budnik

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Webb (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brian Moss

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Doan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Jones (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wes Cothran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luke MacDowall (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Bryan Apfelbaum

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew White (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Schelling (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Becker (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.64
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Chris Weidinger

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dakotah Kintigh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Shoopman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.37

Daniel Bellotti

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Little (Unknown)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew W (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Unknown)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Terrell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.40

Joe Santianna

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jamal Salem Saedidaryan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Hudson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matt Johnson (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kevin Murphy

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Reed (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nam Vo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jon Ho (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Maxwell Mitchell

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ariana Loveday (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Revera (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Cortez omana (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.19
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.85

Naib Mobassir

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Perez (Unknown)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Pistel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charles Simmons (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Kohls (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Niels Kornerup

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Sanmiguel (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Darren Rennie (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.64
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Noah Beygelman

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Perry (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Fox (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Fowler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 79:21

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.33

Noah Geiger

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maxwell Kolp (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matt Kohls (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yongji Yang (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.64
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Rhea Adams

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Espinoza (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Bannigan (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lahoci Franco (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sabastian Boyle-Mejia

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alejandro Fernandez (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Legg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Will Rea

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Reed (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emmanuel Barron (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Liwag (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.19
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Zachary Burrell

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs June Aino (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Canady (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joe Mastowski (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Yorko

dropped • 1-2-1

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Theodore Raitzer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Steven Jeffs (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Derek Zellner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38

Adam Jessell

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Walsh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kelly Angell (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Hannan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Andrew Prejean

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Ferris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Trotta (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Chilgren (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Archer Taylor

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Blankenship (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yongji Yang (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Julian Helgeson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Dylan Ashcraft

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs William Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zack Covington (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nick Allen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sean Fox (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Dylan Dart

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Long (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Harper (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Mattinson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Elliot Bicker

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Meserve (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.26
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Emmanuel Barron

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Scott Krehbiel (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Will Rea (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vinh Vien (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Eric Towne

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alejandro Ziegenhirt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shane Ginter (Unknown)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Johnny Wedzicha

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shawn Adams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alan Hoang (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Justin Salmon

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 79:21

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Darren Rennie (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Thomas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.08
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Luke MacDowall

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Amber Zee (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Levy (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brian Moss (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matt Johnson

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jasiel Diez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nicholas Mihalas

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs June Aino (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alejandro Fernandez (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.96

Bryson Peek

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wyatt Leasure (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Reed (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Jesse Harper

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Bowers (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tristen Farmer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Dart (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sean Fox

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brendan Patrick (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sebastian Burnham

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julian Helgeson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Faciane (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeff Morvan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Nik Dinnis

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vinh Vien (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.