Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at United States National

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chandler To

32nd • 7-1-0

75%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

5.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Brown (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke MacDowall (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mathew Zoglman-Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Dayna Hagewood (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joe Colon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 56:44

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Devin Rattenni (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.19
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R13	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.36
R14	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75

Chad Emerick

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Yanke (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeff Morvan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Turner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Jonah Overholt

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Hawkinson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Jackson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nick Huskinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shawn Adams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.11
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Daniel Ferguson

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Womack (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carter Barton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Carrico (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.