Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at United States National

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chandler To

32nd • 7-1-0

75%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

5.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Brown (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke MacDowall (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mathew Zoglman-Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 65:35

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Dayna Hagewood (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joe Colon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Devin Rattenni (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.14
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.18
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R13	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75

Chad Emerick

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Yanke (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 47:53

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeff Morvan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Turner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.10

Jonah Overholt

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Hawkinson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 20:80

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Jackson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nick Huskinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shawn Adams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Daniel Ferguson

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Womack (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 47:53

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carter Barton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Carrico (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.