Vynnset, Iron Maiden at United States National Championship
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
126th • 4-4-0
25%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
4.2
Surp
3.9
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Santa (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Amber Pennington (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Win vs aaron leblanc (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Matthew Fay (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Ian Becker (Unknown)
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Steven Nemeth (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Felipe Restrepo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 20% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Win |
| R11 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.2
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mark sipics (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38
Round 3: Win vs Vinh Vien (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Unknown)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs David Sitrick (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 23:77
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 20% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anh Tran (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Powell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs James Mangles (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Preston Stahley (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 45% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
1.5
Surp
2.1
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 23:77
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Will Rea (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 23:77
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Bradford (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 27:73
Round 4: Win vs Bryson Peek (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 23:77
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Unknown)
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Reynolds (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kyler Dustin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Johnny Wedzicha (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 23:77
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs William Pearlman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 23:77
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 23:77
Round 3: Loss vs Mitchell Tillery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chase Osborne (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Humbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Heath Scheiman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 24:76
Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Tucker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.