United States National Championship - Prism, Awakener of Sol (CC)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Julian Helgeson

137th • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Barnett (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Burnham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Unknown)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Archer Taylor (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs John Record (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs christian gilbert (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Freddy Sixto (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.18
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.36
R14	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Ryan Brown

dropped • 1-5-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jon Ho (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 23:77

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robert Sievert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kayla Ginter (Unknown)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Tickal (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Chris Legg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R11	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R12	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Jordan McClure

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs George Dilling (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dagan White (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Grytness (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Theodore Maximiuk (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Draw	✗	0.35	-

Dylan Tucker

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Parker (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs TCGTed Grabow (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Win	✗	0.77	2.12

Derek Zellner

dropped • 0-3-1

50%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Greg Mitchell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Kurka (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Michael Beygelman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Yorko (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	70%	Draw	✓	0.68	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.