Azalea, Ace in the Hole at United States National Championship
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
12 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-0-0
25%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
3.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dylan Dart (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nathan Beni (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jenson Wilhelm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Rudin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
dropped • 3-1-0
75%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.1
Surp
2.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Carter Barton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39
Round 3: Win vs Jordan McClure (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Corcoran (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-1-0
75%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tony Le (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
Round 3: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Mink (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-1-0
50%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dakotah Kintigh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Zac Bailey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nick Allen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Arjun Garg (Unknown)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs George Hudson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs James Mangles (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Thomas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.3
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jordan McClure (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jordan Leggett (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Liam Trodden (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dakotah Kintigh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Riley Adams (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mason Taylor (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Zach Benton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brishen Jaimes (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jake Wenger (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Unknown)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Keating (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-1
25%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Devin Rattenni (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Derek Zellner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Nunn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Draw |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
75%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs NIGEL LOUTZENHISER (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Walsh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Unknown)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Archer Taylor (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Gump (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Fields (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.