Azalea, Ace in the Hole at United States National

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Levi Rauch

dropped • 4-0-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

3.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Dart (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Beni (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jenson Wilhelm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Rudin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.54

Dylan Grytness

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carter Barton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jordan McClure (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Corcoran (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

George Hudson

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tony Le (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Mink (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jonathan (chugs) Moore

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dakotah Kintigh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zac Bailey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

David Mink

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nick Allen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Arjun Garg (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs George Hudson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joseph Herbert

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Mangles (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Thomas (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

George Dilling

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jordan McClure (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Leggett (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Trodden (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dakotah Kintigh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Luke Hillard

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Riley Adams (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 18:82

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mason Taylor (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zach Benton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.52
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Thrad Weibley

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brishen Jaimes (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake Wenger (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Unknown)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Keating (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Michael Beygelman

dropped • 0-3-1

75%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Devin Rattenni (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Derek Zellner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Nunn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Gregory Stahl

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs NIGEL LOUTZENHISER (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Walsh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Jordan Blankenship

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Archer Taylor (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Gump (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Fields (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.