Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire at United States National Championship
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
26 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
28th • 6-2-0
38%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
3.9
Surp
8.2
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Aidan Arruza (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 80:20
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72
Round 3: Win vs Michael Keating (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Majin Bae (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 54:46
Round 12: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
30:70
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
Round 14: Win vs Alejandro Ziegenhirt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
8.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Win |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R14 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Win |
38th • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+2.8
Perf
4.3
Surp
8.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Yauger (Unknown)
Round 2: Win vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Riley Adams (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Chris Rowland (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Alex Becker (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
Round 12: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Unknown)
Round 14: Win vs Evan Bridges (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
8.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Win |
| R13 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Win |
59th • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.5
Surp
5.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Archer Taylor (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zephen James (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Heath Scheiman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Wesley Dong (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Dagan White (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
Round 13: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
25:75
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Craig Pollack (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
5.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Win |
| R14 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
67th • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
4.1
Surp
5.5
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Anthony Chiechi (Unknown)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
Round 4: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 12: Win vs Nathan Beni (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 54:46
R14
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Unknown)
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
5.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Win |
| R11 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Win |
| R13 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R14 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
104th • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
4.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Eric Shoopman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs nathan lapham (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lucas Mainhart (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 80:20
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Ryan Biggs (Unknown)
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72
Round 13: Win vs Zac Bailey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Joel Recinos III (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 80% | Win |
| R11 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Win |
| R14 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 45% | Loss |
87th • 3-5-0
25%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 35:65
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
Round 4: Win vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Ethan Van Sant (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R14 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
136th • 3-5-0
25%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Leo Shea (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
Round 4: Win vs Robert Sievert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Dagan White (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Steven Doan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 35:65
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Unknown)
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Jonathan Gracza (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Win |
| R11 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
139th • 3-5-0
38%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Unknown)
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs David Lee (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R13 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Loss |
| R14 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
98th • 2-6-0
75%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pheano Black (Unknown)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Chad Emerick (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Birky (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Burnham (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 54:46
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Louis Solymos (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R13 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 80:20
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Paul White (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Timothy Barron (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
30:70
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Jake Wenger (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R12 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 4-1-0
40%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 54:46
Round 2: Win vs David Clark (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-1
25%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.8
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Jomar Rosete (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
Round 3: Win vs Carson Osborne (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Kehe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Draw |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
1.7
Surp
2.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Todd Woodworth (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Machusak (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michelle Chmura (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72
Round 4: Win vs Andy Modell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ronan Sovitzky (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Charles Simmons (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 80:20
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 80% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
0%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.9
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bryan Knecht (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mitchell Tillery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55
Round 3: Win vs Anh Tran (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.7
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Sitrick (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
Round 4: Win vs Matthew Cudney (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Corcoran (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Pedro Esaki (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Austin Barta (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Nick Allen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Theodore Maximiuk (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bryan Knecht (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tonin ''Nini'' Veshi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Meserve (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Burrell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 54:46
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Pollitz (Unknown)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Chad Burden (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 35:65
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Todd Woodworth (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rogelio Marroquin (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 28:72
Round 4: Win vs Paul Magaha (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Canady (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Colin Wong (Unknown)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tony Le (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.9
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Hebert (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Chilgren (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Beni (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Humbert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Mender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 54:46
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 33:67
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Stowe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jason Nakata (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Darren Knopes (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gerald Toms (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.