Kano, Dracai of Aether at United States National Championship
Kano, Dracai of Aether
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
145th • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Heath Scheiman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Elijah Flanders (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lucas Mainhart (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bryan Warner (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 55:45
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Wyatt Leasure (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 23:77
35:65
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Felipe Restrepo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Darren Rennie (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 25% | Loss |
| R13 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R14 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
0%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sean Fox (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Win vs Darren Rennie (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bryan Knecht (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 23:77
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Dexter Canright (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Fagalde (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 23:77
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Unknown)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
0%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Trent Lennon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew Prejean (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
Round 3: Win vs Joshua Paris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
0%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs CODY READY (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65
Round 4: Win vs Michael Thorington (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 23:77
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sarah Sloat (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Shewan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Justin Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Fagalde (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 23:77
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Oren Yishai (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alan Hoang (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Damon Terry (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Raymond Griffin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dylan Myers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 55:45
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Grytness (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mathew Zoglman-Garcia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jake Ausdemore (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dexter Canright (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 23:77
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.