Katsu, the Wanderer at United States National Championship

Katsu, the Wanderer

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Dan Mui

124th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

4.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zach Benton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joel Recinos III (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Felipe Restrepo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Elise Symmes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 65:35

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Adam Columbia (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.08
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.24
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.14
R12	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R13	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.01
R14	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75

Dakotah Kintigh

101st • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Pepe (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs George Dilling (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Mark Morrison (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jeffrey White (Unknown)

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.14
R12	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.91
R14	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Steven Doan

134th • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brian Moss (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 38:62

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Phillip martinez (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zoey (Zuppy) Gerstner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kyle Pollitz (Unknown)

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Pearcy (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Davis Purcell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Ethan Van Sant (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.17
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.93
R13	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R14	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Chad Burden

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Canales (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Espinoza (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Braden Phillips (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.16
R2	CC	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.12
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.04

Hayden Reed

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mason Taylor (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Fischer (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Trenton McBride (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.48
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.17

Alberto Ruiz

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jason Nakata (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Hawkinson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs aaron leblanc (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Carlos Samaniego

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Felipe Restrepo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mason Paladino (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alejandro Ziegenhirt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jacob Willard

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Trotta (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeff Stamm (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Clinton Jeffers (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jake Woodward

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mason Taylor (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robert Sievert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Botchis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.96
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

James LeResche

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs John Tucker (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Levy (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maxwell Kolp (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Jackson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.12
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Kelly Angell

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elly Bird (Unknown)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Jessell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.04
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Jomar Rosete

dropped • 1-1-2

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs William Harrison (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Elsey (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Kim (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 38:62

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Dylan Williamson (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Draw	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Aaron Ramirez

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cody Williams (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Paris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Reno (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Van Sant (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Adam Leavitt

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Norah Porter (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Reno (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 35:65

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Emery Powell

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Liam Trodden (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Parker (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Mason Paladino

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Mender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs June Aino (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Samaniego (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Tyler Brotton

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Currie (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sabastian Boyle-Mejia (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.