Arakni, Marionette at Calling: Edinburgh 2026

Arakni, Marionette

27 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Clements

2nd • 11-3-0

93%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

6.3

Surp

4.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Elliott Chacksfield (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Correas (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Denis Gergov (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michael de Kok (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Daniel Correas (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.07
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.11
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.31
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.19
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.69
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.76
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R13	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.48
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Emad Kashy

3rd • 10-3-0

92%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

6.1

Surp

4.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sybren Dewulf (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ben Potter (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Finn Macdonald (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joel Rencen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Richard Carr (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nathan Hills (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.05
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.14
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.20
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.42
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.43
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.74
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.82
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.69
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Bartosz Dobrowolski

5th • 9-3-0

83%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

5.5

Surp

4.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Marco Casadio (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Romain Garcin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Denis Gergov (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.04
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.36
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.63
R8	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.29
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R10	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.03
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.98
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Francesco Giorgio

16th • 8-3-0

91%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

5.5

Surp

4.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Valtteri Kurhela (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Connor McLaughlin (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Juan Chacon (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Byron Chatzis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Radoslav Ogoryalkov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Maximilian Reichl (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.08
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.29
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.70
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.24

Rafał Liwerski

24th • 7-4-0

91%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

5.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas de Oliveira Pacheco (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Bradbury (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Chris Morgan (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ximun LASTIRI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.09
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.21
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.39
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.62
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.65
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Matthew Brown

25th • 7-4-0

82%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

5.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Rhoden (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Spencer Baker (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

80:20

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matthew Sandford (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Richard Carr (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.34
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.22
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.44
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.59
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.29
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Maximilian Reichl

26th • 7-4-0

82%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.2

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lillie Cutler (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 80:20

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jamie McCabe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joel Rencen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christian Agosto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Sandford (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tom Ward (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.03
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.20
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.25
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.57
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.58
R7	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.78
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.78
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jonas Benzarti

41st • 6-5-0

82%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

5.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Connor Davis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Renzo Schietgat (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mark Henderson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wallace Pate (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Erika Forslöf (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.32
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.47
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.43
R7	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.48
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.44
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Josh Keys

dropped • 4-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tommy Young (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Callum Birkett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Αναστάσιος Παπαγιάννης (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Chris Morgan (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.31
R6	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.89
R7	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-

Dylan Thompson

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Guillaume Lamouroux (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.52
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Fernando García-casarrubios

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Robin Lesage (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brodie Smith (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Tunstall (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Hamilton Wexler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.15
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.52
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.61

Michael Feng

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jaden De-Arth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josh Keys (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Krstic (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sybren Dewulf (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.09
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.52
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Ryan Adshead

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Liam Blakeman (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 65:35

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Warre Sevens (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 87:13

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Howard (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Finn Baird (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rhyan Bromell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R3	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.09
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.45
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.44
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Alex Berry

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anatoly Mukhin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan McVean (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Leo Reichl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.15
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Byron Chatzis

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Gray (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brecht D'hondt (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emilia Miele (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs James Clark (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.31
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.53
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Louise Roberts

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alan Lynch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommy Young (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan McVean (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Miguel Cardoso (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Finn Macdonald (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.37
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Bruno Vale Fernandes

dropped • 2-4-1

86%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs anthony blakeman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Davis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ximun LASTIRI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Camron Lowe (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Jordan Akers (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Berry (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Benjamin Van donkelaar

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Liam Canning (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wouter Ouwehand (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rob Thoen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Renzo Schietgat (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Bogdan-Andrei Oros

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kaloyan Nikov (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rebecca Leyden (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joseph Taylor (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Samed Demir (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Morgan (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.78
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.04
R6	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Chloe Whitfield

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aidan Clark (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Thoen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jack Timpson (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Guillaume Lamouroux (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.50
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Paul van Gijssel

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Markus Reichhart (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wallace Pate (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leo Reichl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kin Yen Lee (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.37
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.42
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rob Thoen

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Αναστάσιος Παπαγιάννης (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 49:51

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kin Yen Lee (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chloe Whitfield (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Pringle (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.63
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Davis

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anatoly Mukhin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Finn Baird (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Guillaume Lamouroux

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gordon Wallace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Annabelle McQuade (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Samed Demir (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chloe Whitfield (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gordon Wallace

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Guillaume Lamouroux (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fraser Wallace (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Paul Crame

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Radoslav Ogoryalkov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Florian Höflmair (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sybren Dewulf (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Liam Canning (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

anthony blakeman

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Kaiser (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Craig Canning (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.81
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.