Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Edinburgh 2026
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
14 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 9-3-0
33%
Meta
+3.9
Perf
6.1
Surp
6.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chloe Whitfield (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tom Ward (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alex Berry (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jamie McCabe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ryan Adshead (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
Round 8: Win vs Jack Bradbury (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jonas Benzarti (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
Round 11: Win vs Thomas Harle (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
33% (4/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
6.1 total deviation
Difficulty
6.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
14th • 8-3-0
36%
Meta
+3.4
Perf
5.5
Surp
4.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dominic McKenzie (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Annabelle McQuade (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Léo Toulouse (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
Round 6: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
20:80
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 20:80
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
36% (4/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 20% | Loss |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
45th • 6-5-0
55%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
5.3
Surp
2.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Paul Crame (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
Round 2: Win vs Rhys Francis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joshua Howard (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Denis Gergov (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs James Clark (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Adam West (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Emilia Miele (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 48:52
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
55% (6/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Louise Roberts (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
Round 3: Win vs Luke Alcock (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nate Wood (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lewis Reid (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44
Round 7: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
14%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Linnea Söderlund (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 40:60
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gavin Caldwell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66
Round 6: Win vs Luke Alcock (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Barry Buchanan (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Adam Strother (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
Round 4: Loss vs Léo Dupraz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Rhys Francis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Callum Hancock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Graham Dow (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-6-0
43%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 20:80
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Iain Brown (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs George Callaghan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nate Wood (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jennifer Buchanan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thomas Denk (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Liam Canning (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Krstic (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alwart Nijveld (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
Round 4: Win vs Ross Yule (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
0%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Finn Baird (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Win vs Henry Cooke (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Finn Labe (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Barry Buchanan (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Miguel Cardoso (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Akers (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kristopher Ryan-Clout (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alex Neseyif-Deakin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Finn Macdonald (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adrian Lee (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniel McPhail (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Callum Goddard (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Pietro Saccarini (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bradley Slater (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.