Fai, Rising Rebellion at Calling: Edinburgh 2026
Fai, Rising Rebellion
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Bambrick (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nathan Rhoden (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Round 4: Win vs Alan Lynch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Louise Roberts (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Arnold Baars (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Richard Carr (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
4.2
Surp
3.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Patrick Kaiser (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Αναστάσιος Παπαγιάννης (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Logan Newall (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jude Cornett (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 48:52
Round 6: Win vs Léo Dupraz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Christian Agosto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chloe Whitfield (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wallace Pate (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Logan Newall (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50
95:5
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Adam W (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 94:6
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Carl Boyle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 95% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
95:5
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eilidh Devine (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 94:6
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow | 95% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rhyan Bromell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hamilton Wexler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Adam Strother (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Adrian Lee (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 75:25
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Duncan Macbeth (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brecht D'hondt (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.