Kayo, Underhanded Cheat at Calling: Edinburgh 2026

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kaloyan Nikov

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carl Boyle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs August St.Jude (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kristopher Ryan-Clout (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.44
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Liam Blakeman

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dan York (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Adshead (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Johnson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Miguel Cardoso (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hamilton Wexler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Richard Carr (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gavin Caldwell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Arnold Baars

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yorgos Samaras (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Barry Buchanan (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jamie McCabe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R5	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.