Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tim Dasiukevich

5th • 5-2-1

62%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Kevin Sharpes (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Fogg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Callum Young (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tom Ward (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Samuel Parry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.16
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Draw	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.80
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.25
R11	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Kiran Lee

29th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Toby Beckham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lotara Norris (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Hicks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs James Gray (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Daniel Collett (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.31
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.53
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.18
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Tim McCarthy

12th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maciej Walenczykowski (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emel Walsh (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marcus Archer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Stefano Berian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Stuart Reeve (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.31
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.47
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.05
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rhyan Bromell

30th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Goodchild (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Damon Elgie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs George Jones (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs David Watt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs James Earle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.31
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.92
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Tommy Young

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Moore (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Thomas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Izzy Staniforth (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Jack Rhys-Burgess

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Gray (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Radoslav Ogoryalkov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Teague (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.54

Mike Williams

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Konrad Paziewski (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ed Kennan (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs robert john hall (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.56
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Rob Catton

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anatoly Mukhin (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Earle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Kenworthy (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Oliver Wilson

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marcus Archer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ed Cardall (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.