National Championship 2026 - United Kingdom - Katsu, the Wanderer (CC)

Katsu, the Wanderer

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

robert john hall

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Phil Mead (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stuart Clark (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mike Williams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.77
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Declan Macewan

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Felix Elias (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

James Webb

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sarah Howes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stuart Turner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Calf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Osama MacDonald (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.