National Championship 2026 - United Kingdom - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Clements

1st • 8-2-0

50%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

5.1

Surp

6.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phil Mead (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Frazer Eastman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James Earle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Samuel Parry (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Alex Chițu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.26
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.98
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.03
R10	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.24
R12	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.92
R13	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.21

Francesco Giorgio

5th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Collett (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Saarela (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jack Bradbury (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Simon MacDonald (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Frazer Eastman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.13
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.15
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R8	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R9	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.44
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.08
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Noah Hicks

22nd • 6-1-0

29%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

4.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Craig Johnson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon MacDonald (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Mountford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sarah Howes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Robert Catling (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.37
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.38
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.48
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.61

Emad Kashy

18th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Damon Elgie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Petter Olsson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ben Emmanuel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jack Mountford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Frazer Eastman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs robert john hall (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ben Lux (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.48
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.66
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.02

Tom Hazell

31st • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Collins (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul A Wright (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Moore (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David McAllan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tim Coates (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R8	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.47
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.85
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Thomas Davis

37th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dan York (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sarah Howes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Mullings (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kera Banning (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Josh Keys (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.16
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.10
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.16
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43

Josh Keys

45th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ed Cardall (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marcus Archer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tim Greenaway (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Thomas Davis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.26
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.99
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David McAllan

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wyn Davies-Batista (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Gray (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Hazell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Stuart Turner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.74
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Callum Birkett

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Calf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Appleby (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Whewell (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dan York (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Phil Mead

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs robert john hall (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sharif Shaaban (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Izzy Staniforth (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Tim Greenaway

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Mullings (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Liam Holden (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marcus Rosemin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Josh Keys (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.