National Championship 2026 - United Kingdom - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Declan Patrick

35th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Murray (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Watt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tim Coates (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43

Tim Coates

46th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ben McConnochie (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jess Swandale (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James Gray (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tom Hazell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.90
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jules Dixon

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stefano Berian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joel Rencen (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ben McConnochie (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Moore (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Callum Young

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jack Warren (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Watt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Carr (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Jordan Akers

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Damon Elgie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.19

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.