Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2026

Puffin, Hightail

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Declan Patrick

35th • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Murray (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Watt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tim Coates (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43

Tim Coates

46th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ben McConnochie (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jess Swandale (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James Gray (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tom Hazell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.45
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.84
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jules Dixon

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stefano Berian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joel Rencen (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ben McConnochie (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Moore (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09

Callum Young

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jack Warren (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Watt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Carr (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.32
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Jordan Akers

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Damon Elgie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.