National Championship 2026 - United Kingdom - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Steve Andrew

19th • 6-1-0

71%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

4.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Declan Macewan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Edward Bayford (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stefano Berian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Declan Patrick (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tom Hazell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.66	2.23

Andrew Moore

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tommy Young (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Hazell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jules Dixon (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Finn Baird

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Debling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dan York (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.