National Championship 2026 - United Kingdom - Rhinar, Reckless Rampage (CC)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Stuart Reeve

14th • 4-3-0

14%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Frazer Eastman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sam Price (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robert Catling (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs David Watt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Simon MacDonald (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.63
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R10	CC	Zyggy Starlight	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.84

Jess Swandale

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Kenworthy (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Coates (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.55
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	15%	Win	✗	0.83	1.91
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

James Clark

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kate Dunstone (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Annabelle McQuade (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Craig Johnson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Tom Barnaby-Pass

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs robert john hall (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Chițu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Davis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.55
R3	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Kate Dunstone

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Clark (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Keir Sweeney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Osama MacDonald (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kera Banning (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Stuart Clark

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Edmond (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Brown (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs robert john hall (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sara van Reeken (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.69
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.