National Championship 2026 - United Kingdom - Marlynn, Treasure Hunter (CC)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Felix Elias

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Emmanuel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Craig Johnson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Seb Ball (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Declan Macewan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ed Kennan (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.50
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Finlay Shepherd

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Watt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jack Fejer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Price (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 10:90

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tom Hazell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

George Jones

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Leila Catton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

10:90

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 10:90

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rhyan Bromell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.