National Championship 2026 - United Kingdom - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Emel Walsh

51st • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben McConnochie (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sara van Reeken (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lotara Norris (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Radoslav Ogoryalkov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

95:5

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ed Kennan (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 93:7, favorite upset

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Annabelle McQuade (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.54
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.31
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.86
R9	CC	Zyggy Starlight	95%	Loss	✓	0.93	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.78

Steven Christian

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kera Banning (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Price (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Petter Olsson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.75
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Jack Fejer

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Finlay Shepherd (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Collins (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stuart Turner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.56
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Simon Lüthi

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Declan Macewan (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sara van Reeken (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.