Sunday Showdown: Rotterdam 2026 - Valda Brightaxe (SAGE)

Valda Brightaxe

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Martynas Norbutas

29th • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gilles De Vylder (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Romain Lambert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Everett Bumgarner (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nicolas BROSSE (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dennis Hahn (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Patrick Hauser (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R7	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Sacha Evrard

46th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Karanjeet Singh (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs André Kofmel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Hao Ru Wu (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Sandén (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.19
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.39
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.41

Alexandro Vera

53rd • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Deridder (Dromai) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Catton (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Erik Skinstad (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mkrtich Chivijyan (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.75
R6	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Sam Cornelis

66th • 4-4-0

25%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Romain Lambert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Klitzsch (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kjell Lannoo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs joeri pennings (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jakob Immer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Antun Mesar (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ozan Birinci (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20

Alan Williams

73rd • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Hahn (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Antun Mesar (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Klitzsch (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gaël Dorckel (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Adam Chebchoub (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.69
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.05
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.41

Fernando García-casarrubios

89th • 2-6-0

38%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Davis Groza (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Stürmer (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Griesbach (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jordan Smolders (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Miguel Cardoso (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Stijn Delaruelle (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R7	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Yannick Machiels

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Marcel Gros (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Wolfgang Mahl (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Möller (Dorinthea) - Expected: 19:81

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Hao Ru Wu (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.07
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Jan Schweder

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs joeri pennings (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Hao Ru Wu (Rhinar) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Simon Daelemans (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Thomas van den Berg

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Floyd Vrij (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Simon Daelemans (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Stuart Turner

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs ruben dehenau (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andy Rakoto (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Miguel Cardoso (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marcel Gros

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yannick Machiels (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Möller (Dorinthea) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

David Moore

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Danny van Zon (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Sandén (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ype Beuk (Dorinthea) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Remco Baal

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Satish Ramlall (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bram Hast (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adrián Marín (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.