Sunday Showdown: Rotterdam 2026 - Briar (SAGE)

Briar

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jean Luka Zorko

9th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bram Hast (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christian Meinzer (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Buntrock (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Declan Patrick (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Terra) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.03
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Cédric De smet

21st • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

4.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Akers (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Marcus Wystub (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Peter Stürmer (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lukas Lorek (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Bart Horré (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Samed Demir (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.56
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.93
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.47
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.06
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Samed Demir

34th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs André Kofmel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Smolders (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Hakan Baris (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Cédric De smet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.40
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.71
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Peter Bråss

58th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Marcel Gros (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Kano) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mkrtich Chivijyan (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tim Heibrok (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.71
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Dan Moldovan

59th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dominik Schauer (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Buntrock (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Rene Gropp (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Samed Demir (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Diana Triebnig (Fai) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Sebastian Christofzik (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.55
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Stijn Delaruelle

90th • 1-7-0

88%

Meta

-3.6

Perf

4.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Gremm (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Floyd Vrij (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs William Rao (Riptide) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Sandén (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Christoph Munzig (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gaël Dorckel (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Silver Age	Victor Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Jordan Akers

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Cédric De smet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Falko Holzenhauer (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Müller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Iyslander) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Hakan Baris (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.19
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Julien Erdreich

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Hakan Baris (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sammy Du Mongh (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Heimbeck (Enigma) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.51
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Merijn Poorthuis

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adrián Marín (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Werk (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christian Meinzer (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Adrián Marín

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Chebchoub (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Merijn Poorthuis (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Remco Baal (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tat Chuong Hua (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Leif Angerstein

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sander Deceuninck (Dash) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Fabian Groß (Dromai) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Vasil Popov (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christoph Korzeniewski (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Shane Steinert

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs jens van santberghe (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Diana Triebnig (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs damien herlin (Rhinar) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ype Beuk (Dorinthea) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Noah Dreckmann

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Buntrock (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Oliver Gehrig

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Vasil Popov (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.