Sunday Showdown: Rotterdam 2026 - Iyslander (SAGE)

Iyslander

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rob Catton

10th • 6-2-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas BROSSE (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mkrtich Chivijyan (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexandro Vera (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rene Gropp (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Léo Toulouse (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs René Schep (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Kiran Lee

19th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Robin Deceuninck (Rhinar) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Vasilis Kirlis (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonas Müller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jakob Immer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide) - Expected: 86:14

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.48
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.90
R8	Silver Age	Riptide	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.22

David Kuric

23rd • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dalton Harmsen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Terra) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Savinien Castel (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Justin Kruft (Terra) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Sander Deceuninck (Dash) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jonas Müller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Hakan Baris (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Dash	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.61
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

René Schep

25th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lukas Lorek (Fai) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bart Horré (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andrei Dragne (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Rob Catton (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	15%	Win	✗	0.84	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.44
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Konrad Weiss

45th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tim Heibrok (Florian) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Sandén (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs René Schep (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kjell Lannoo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Antun Mesar (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.44
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Andrei Dragne

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Keir Murphy (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tat Chuong Hua (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Antoine BEUCHER (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs René Schep (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Vasil Popov (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Michael de Kok

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Julian Cappallo (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andy Rakoto (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Keir Murphy (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sacha Evrard (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs William Rao (Riptide) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Romain Lambert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.45
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.16
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Julian Cappallo

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Antoan Yordanov (Lexi) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Terra) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dalton Harmsen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tim Heibrok (Florian) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Cato DIrdal (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R5	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R6	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Robert van der Padt

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Salina Vaes (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Hakan Baris (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs André Kofmel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Chebchoub (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Savinien Castel (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Savinien Castel

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sacha Evrard (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Vasilis Kirlis (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Diana Triebnig (Fai) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Kuric (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Robert van der Padt (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.86
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Peter Stürmer

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs ruben dehenau (Florian) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Meinzer (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Cédric De smet (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.63
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Danny van Zon

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Moore (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lukas Lorek (Fai) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lars-Christian Lieckfeldt (Vynnset) - Expected: 33:67

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs ruben dehenau (Florian) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Michaele Teppa

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Hauser (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Christoph Munzig (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cédric De smet (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Akers (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Victor Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.