Vynnset at Sunday Showdown: Rotterdam 2026

Vynnset

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonas Stoberock

5th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Hao Ru Wu (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Robert van der Padt (Iyslander) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Romain Lambert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Rayner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Vasil Popov (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Rob Catton (Iyslander) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Romain Lambert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.57
R7	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.52
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Melvin Valderrey

60th • 4-3-1

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Schauer (Unknown)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Samed Demir (Briar) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sacha Evrard (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 19:81

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Erik Skinstad (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Xavier Aubert (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.58
R7	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-

Pierre-Yves Garcia

83rd • 3-3-2

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs Justin Kruft (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Heibrok (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Griesbach (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Gilles De Vylder (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs damien herlin (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jordan Smolders (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Miguel Cardoso (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.13
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Ibe

74th • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs jens van santberghe (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Everett Bumgarner (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Hao Ru Wu (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R7	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lars-Christian Lieckfeldt

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jonas Müller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs damien herlin (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Danny van Zon (Iyslander) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.