Sunday Showdown: Rotterdam 2026 - Florian (SAGE)

Florian

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Christoph Korzeniewski

70th • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kjell Lannoo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Marcus Wystub (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Leif Angerstein (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Sandén (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tom Griesbach (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Dalton Harmsen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Tim Heibrok

77th • 3-5-0

12%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pierre-Yves Garcia (Vynnset) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ozan Birinci (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bram Hast (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Julian Cappallo (Iyslander) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.29
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Markus Heimbeck

dropped • 1-4-1

83%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Christoph Munzig (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

100:0

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Draw vs Miguel Cardoso (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Victor Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	100%	Draw	✓	1.00	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

ruben dehenau

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Stürmer (Iyslander) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stuart Turner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Erik Skinstad (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Danny van Zon (Iyslander) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jan Wöhlke (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.66
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Wolfgang Mahl

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Yannick Machiels (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sander Deceuninck (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.