Kayo at Sunday Showdown: Rotterdam 2026

Kayo

24 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brodie Spurlock

24th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christoph Munzig (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tobias Hartfiel (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Ibe (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alex Chițu (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Victor Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.29
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Christian Meinzer

28th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ype Beuk (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Peter Stürmer (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Merijn Poorthuis (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Simon Daelemans (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Florian Vanbrakel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Antoan Yordanov (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.58
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.89
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Vasil Popov

30th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Leif Angerstein (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rafael Boog (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alessandro Bracci (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andrei Dragne (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tobias Hartfiel

31st • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Leoluca Colletti (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Philipp Schlegel (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Möller (Dorinthea) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Vasilis Kirlis (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.61
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Alessandro Bracci

32nd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Falko Holzenhauer (Enigma) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Emile Simon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Cato DIrdal (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Vasil Popov (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Terra) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Bram Hast (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Terra	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.59
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.89
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Mkrtich Chivijyan

36th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Pawel Jaromin (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rob Catton (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tat Chuong Hua (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alexandro Vera (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Floyd Vrij (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.88
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.77
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Sebastian Christofzik

48th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Roger Braun (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dalton Harmsen (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sander Deceuninck (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Diana Triebnig (Fai) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tom Griesbach (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs jens van santberghe (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.76
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.17

Xavier Aubert

54th • 4-3-1

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Antun Mesar (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mkrtich Chivijyan (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jason Huylebroeck (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tim Heibrok (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-

Thomas Sandén

62nd • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emile Simon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs David Moore (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rens Brouwers (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Stijn Delaruelle (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Christoph Korzeniewski (Florian) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Keir Murphy (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Sacha Evrard (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.73
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.51
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

jens van santberghe

65th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shane Steinert (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Emile Simon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Ibe (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Fabian Groß (Dromai) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jan Wöhlke (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastian Christofzik (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Diana Triebnig (Fai) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.15
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Adam Chebchoub

76th • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adrián Marín (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Antoine BEUCHER (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rens Brouwers (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Romain Lambert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Robert van der Padt (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.54
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Fabian Schunn

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jan Schweder (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs René Schep (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tat Chuong Hua (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lars-Christian Lieckfeldt (Vynnset) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Vasilis Kirlis (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Petar Peric (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Stevie Van Overtveldt

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs damien herlin (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cédric De smet (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Antoine BEUCHER (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dennis Hahn (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bart Horré (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Buntrock

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonas Müller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ozan Birinci (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Philipp Schlegel

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jan Wöhlke (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tobias Hartfiel (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Roger Braun

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Christofzik (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Cato DIrdal (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Florian Vanbrakel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bart Horré (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nicolas BROSSE (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.61
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Sammy Du Mongh

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Kruft (Terra) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gilles De Vylder (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Florian Grabenstein (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Terra	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.81
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.80

Tat Chuong Hua

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrei Dragne (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adrián Marín (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mkrtich Chivijyan (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.94
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dominik Schauer

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Everett Bumgarner (Levia) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dan Moldovan (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Smolders (Kano) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.76
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Salina Vaes

dropped • 1-2-1

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Robert van der Padt (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs Miguel Cardoso (Riptide) - Expected: 33:67

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christoph Munzig (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs joeri pennings (Levia) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Draw	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Victor Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andy Rakoto

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Stuart Turner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Keir Murphy (Oldhim) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.51
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Sebastian Gremm

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Erik Skinstad (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stijn Delaruelle (Briar) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tom Griesbach (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ozan Birinci (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.76
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs joeri pennings (Levia) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alexandro Vera (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Philipp Schlegel (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Leoluca Colletti

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tobias Hartfiel (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ozan Birinci (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Grabenstein (Rhinar) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.