Sunday Showdown: Rotterdam 2026 - Riptide (SAGE)

Riptide

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Hanno Lünser

26th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Xavier Aubert (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 8:92

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Cato DIrdal (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tobias Hartfiel (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Iyslander) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.08	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.37
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

William Rao

49th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Fai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bart Horré (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 9:91

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stijn Delaruelle (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 14:86

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs joeri pennings (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jan Wöhlke (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R6	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.61

Miguel Cardoso

88th • 2-2-4

88%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Antoan Yordanov (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs Salina Vaes (Kayo) - Expected: 67:33

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Kevin Deridder (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stuart Turner (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

0:100

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Draw vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian) - Expected: 0:100

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Pierre-Yves Garcia (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	65%	Draw	✓	0.67	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Florian	0%	Draw	✗	0.00	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.