Enigma at Sunday Showdown: Rotterdam 2026

Enigma

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aaron Heimbeck

67th • 4-3-1

38%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.9

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Stefan Hilderink (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs Ype Beuk (Dorinthea) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Gilles De Vylder (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Robin Deceuninck (Rhinar) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Antoine BEUCHER (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Draw	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.87
R5	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.76
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R8	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kamil "Kaka" Żerek

56th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs René Schep (Iyslander) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jurij Di Carlo (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yannick Machiels (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas van den Berg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 77:23

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christoph Korzeniewski (Florian) - Expected: 77:23

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Ibe (Vynnset) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Samed Demir (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jonas Müller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R2	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.24
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.30
R7	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Falko Holzenhauer

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alessandro Bracci (Kayo) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Akers (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jan Wöhlke (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.