Sunday Showdown: Rotterdam 2026 - Rhinar (SAGE)

Rhinar

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Hao Ru Wu

69th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gilles De Vylder (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jan Schweder (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Yannick Machiels (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sacha Evrard (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Thomas Ibe (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.44
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

damien herlin

dropped • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lars-Christian Lieckfeldt (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Shane Steinert (Briar) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Emile Simon (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Petar Peric (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pierre-Yves Garcia (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.77
R5	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Florian Grabenstein

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Vasilis Kirlis (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas BROSSE (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Leoluca Colletti (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sammy Du Mongh (Kayo) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.74
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Robin Deceuninck

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Hakan Baris (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Iyslander) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Kruft (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Heimbeck (Enigma) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.