Sunday Showdown: Rotterdam 2026 - Oldhim (SAGE)

Oldhim

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jimmy Nguyen

15th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Merijn Poorthuis (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas van den Berg (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Ibe (Vynnset) - Expected: 62:38

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dennis Hahn (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Tobias Hartfiel (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.44
R6	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.52

Alex Chițu

16th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sammy Du Mongh (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jakob Immer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Samed Demir (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Nicolas BROSSE (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Felix Krisch (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.17
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.52
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Keir Murphy

81st • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrei Dragne (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jasper Schatorje (Azalea) - Expected: 86:14

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andy Rakoto (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jakob Immer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Justin Kruft (Terra) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Sandén (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Gaël Dorckel (Fai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R6	Silver Age	Terra	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.06
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Mirko Dolce

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Briar) - Expected: 82:18

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Philipp Schlegel (Kayo) - Expected: 70:30

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrei Dragne (Iyslander) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Antun Mesar (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Michael Klitzsch

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Petar Peric (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.