Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Atlanta 2026
Arakni, Marionette
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
17th • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ada Pitts (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Travis Yeo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Justin Evans (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs jeffrey nelson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Randall Sims (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
28th • 4-2-1
71%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.7
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Drew Walker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 70:30
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ning Liu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 72:28
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Christiano Cavallo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51
95:5
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tristan DeVita (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 93:7
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Evan Brook (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 36:64
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Draw vs Robert Cuellari (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Round 7: Win vs Michael Dirksen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 95% | Win |
| R5 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Draw |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
19th • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Stephen Higgs (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Stephen Helmly (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Donald Kell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christiano Cavallo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tyruss Sennett (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Deibis (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Loss |
23rd • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Michael Dirksen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Trevor Rich (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 72:28
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brooks Olree (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Martinez (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 42:58
90:10
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Joe Bey (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 92:8
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nelson Torres (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Durham (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Pleiades, Superstar | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 90% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
37th • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Trenton Gutridge (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brooks Olree (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
95:5
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joshua White (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 93:7
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aiden Tylavsky (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
Round 5: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Randall Sims (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Paul Chen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 95% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
44th • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chris Eppard (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 70:30
Round 2: Loss vs Trent Lynch (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Enos (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Paul Chen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
90:10
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 92:8
Round 6: Loss vs Ashley Gutridge (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Austin Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 90% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
48th • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jose Rodriguez (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christiano Cavallo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jeff Polakiewicz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Harrelson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Enos (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Mason Brantley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Cameron Norman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Huntsman | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Robert Cuellari (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Austin Harris (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
Round 3: Loss vs Trevor Rich (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Daniel Todd (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Donald Kell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Watts (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jeff Polakiewicz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Win vs Mason Brantley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs George Wehunt (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.