Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: Atlanta 2026
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
50th • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.8
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Carson Coker (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs John Hortman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
10:90
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Deibis (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 10:90
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Caleb Lolley (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chris Martin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nate Vargas (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Noah Zinn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 10% | Loss |
| R4 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.