Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 5-1-1
71%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jeff Polakiewicz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Round 2: Win vs Joshua Wells (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Robert Cuellari (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 62:38
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Randy Davis (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Brooks Olree (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Justin Evans (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Pleiades, Superstar | 65% | Draw |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
27th • 4-2-1
57%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.7
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Brook (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 33:67
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Mason Brantley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tim Kadom (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
Round 4: Win vs Brandon Ross (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Stephen Helmly (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jeff Polakiewicz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Draw |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
30th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Colin Smith (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Robert Cuellari (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Brandon Ross (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Stephen Helmly (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jose Rodriguez (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
Round 6: Loss vs Ning Liu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Trenton Gutridge (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Billy Uribes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew Harrelson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evan Brook (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.2
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Austin Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kaylum Uribes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.