Pleiades, Superstar at Battle Hardened: Atlanta 2026
Pleiades, Superstar
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 6-0-1
71%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
3.3
Surp
3.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Macdonald Hutchinson (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joseph Watts (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Jason Watkins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Evan Brook (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tyruss Sennett (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Draw |
| R6 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
5th • 6-1-0
86%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
3.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Austin Harris (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kaylum Uribes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Trent Lynch (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Randy Davis (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Joshua Wells (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Nate Vargas (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Travis Yeo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tyruss Sennett (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Donald Kell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
67%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Randy Davis (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Drew Walker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Wells (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ashley Gutridge (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 30:70
Round 5: Loss vs Clifton Fowler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Maxwell Martrich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.